This article presents a system for forecasting increasing tension and war in the Middle East and illustrates to those studying crisis-prone regions of the world an early warning system for predicting international tension. In the first part of the article are discussed the theory, methodology, and results obtained in testing the system, while the appendices present the more technical aspects. In the conclusion of this article it is held that crises follow stable behavioral patterns, and that although the analysis may deal with international actors in a mechanical fashion, it is the most viable and valid solution to a critical human problem. 193 Downloaded by [University of Otago] at 06:38 08 October 2015 194 E. E. AZAR ET AL.
scite is a Brooklyn-based startup that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.