No abstract

No abstract

Economic globalization depends on the movement of people and goods between countries. As these exchanges increase, so does the potential for translocation of harmful pests, weeds, and pathogens capable of impacting our crops, livestock and natural resources (Hulme 2009), with concomitant impacts on global food security (Cook et al. 2011). Potential invasions by alien species create a dilemma for nations that engage in international trade. On one hand, free trade may provide new markets for producers, cheaper and more diverse goods for consumers, and increase overall gross domestic product. On the other hand, unfettered trade may allow new pests to arrive and jeopardize domestic agricultural industries. Pests may lower agricultural production, reduce the marketability of a crop, or trigger quarantine restrictions from other coun

This chapter provides guidance on mapping risks posed by invasive alien species to support pest risk analysis (PRA), the process required to justify phytosanitary measures. Because pest risk mapping can be challenging and resource-intensive, the situations in which risk maps are particularly useful are highlighted. The procedures described focus on mapping areas where the pest can establish and potentially cause the greatest harm. In the first stage of risk mapping, the factors that might influence the potential distribution and impacts of an invasive alien species are identified and the data are assembled and mapped. In the second stage, the maps of each factor are combined using matrix rules to generate areas of potential establishment and highest risk. These general procedures are illustrated with two examples. Risk maps for the western corn rootworm, a maize pest that has invaded Europe, are based on the combination of maps of climatic suitability, the presence of sandy soils, the distribution of grain and forage maize and the value of these commodities in Europe. Uncertainty is estimated by varying the classification of climatic suitability to obtain the worst, best and most likely scenarios. Risk maps for the common water hyacinth, an invasive plant on the Iberian Peninsula, are based on maps of climatic suitability, the distribution of suitable wetland habitats and areas of conservation importance. The chapter concludes by summarizing some of the major challenges that remain to enhance the production of risk maps for PRA and their interpretation by risk managers.

This chapter describes the North-Carolina-State-University/Animal-and-Plant-Health-Inspection-Service Plant Pest Forecasting System (NAPPFAST). NAPPFAST, developed for pest risk modelling and mapping, was formerly used to support pest detection, emergency response and risk analysis for the US Department of Agriculture. NAPPFAST employs an internet-based graphical user interface to link weather databases with interactive biological model templates. The weather databases include historical daily weather databases for North America and the world. The templates include degree-days, generic empirical models, infection periods and the Generic Pest Forecast System (GPFS). The GPFS, currently in development, is a model that uses hourly inputs and includes modules for development rate, hot and cold mortality, population and potential damage. In this chapter, three examples illustrate the capabilities of NAPPFAST: (i) pathway analysis for Lymantria dispar asiatica (Asian gypsy moth); (ii) epidemiological modelling for Phytophthora ramorum (the cause of sudden oak death and other plant diseases); and (iii) simple population modelling for Bactrocera dorsalis (oriental fruit fly). One advanced feature of NAPPFAST is cyber-infrastructure that supports the sharing of products and data between modellers and end users. The infrastructure includes tools for managing user access, uploading and correcting geographic coordinates for pest observations, and an interactive geographic information system environment for viewing input data and model products. NAPPFAST was used by the US Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine, although access has been granted to government and university cooperators working on risk analysis of invasive alien species.