Generalist and specialist species differ in the breadth of their ecological niche. Little is known about the niche width of obligate human pathogens. Here we analyzed a global collection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Lineage 4 clinical isolates, the most geographically widespread cause of human tuberculosis. We show that Lineage 4 comprises globally distributed and geographically restricted sublineages, suggesting a distinction between generalists and specialists. Population genomic analyses showed that while the majority of human T cell epitopes were conserved in all sublineages, the proportion of variable epitopes was higher in generalists. Our data further support a European origin for the most common generalist sublineage. Hence, the global success of Lineage 4 reflects distinct strategies adopted by different sublineages and the influence of human migration.

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis has rapidly evolved from a research tool to a clinical application for the diagnosis and management of tuberculosis and in public health surveillance. This evolution has been facilitated by the dramatic drop in costs, advances in technology, and concerted efforts to translate sequencing data into actionable information. There is however a risk that, in the absence of a consensus and international standards, the widespread use of WGS technology may result in data and processes that lack harmonisation, comparability and validation. In this review, we outline the current landscape of WGS pipelines and applications and set out best practices for M. tuberculosis WGS, including standards for bioinformatics pipelines, curated repository of resistance-causing variants, phylogenetic analyses, quality control processes, and standardised reporting. 1. Introduction Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (Mtbc) pathogens are collectively the top infectious disease killer globally, causing 10 million new tuberculosis (TB) cases annually 1. Increasingly, 95 new TB cases are already resistant to rifampicin and isoniazid (termed multidrug resistance; 96 MDR-TB), the key first line drugs 1. Tackling the spread and drug resistance burden of this pathogen requires concerted global effort in prevention, diagnosis, treatment and surveillance.

BackgroundThe World Health Organization recommends universal drug susceptibility testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex to guide treatment decisions and improve outcomes. We assessed whether DNA sequencing can accurately predict antibiotic susceptibility profiles for first-line anti-tuberculosis drugs. MethodsWhole-genome sequences and associated phenotypes to isoniazid, rifampicin, ethambutol and pyrazinamide were obtained for isolates from 16 countries across six continents. For each isolate, mutations associated with drug-resistance and drug-susceptibility were identified across nine genes, and individual phenotypes were predicted unless mutations of unknown association were also present. To identify how whole-genome sequencing might direct first-line drug therapy, complete susceptibility profiles were predicted. These were predicted to be pan-susceptible if predicted susceptible to isoniazid and to other drugs, or contained mutations of unknown association in genes affecting these other drugs. We simulated how negative predictive value changed with drug-resistance prevalence.Results10,209 isolates were analysed. The greatest proportion of phenotypes were predicted for rifampicin (9,660/10,130; (95.4%)) and the lowest for ethambutol (8,794/9,794; (89.8%)). Isoniazid, rifampicin, ethambutol and pyrazinamide resistance was correctly predicted with 97.1%, 97.5% 94.6% and 91.3% sensitivity, and susceptibility with 99.0%, 98.8%, 93.6% and 96.8% specificity, respectively. 5,250 (89.5%) drug profiles were correctly predicted for 5,865/7,516 (78.0%) isolates with complete phenotypic profiles. Among these, 3,952/4,037 (97.9%) predictions of pan-susceptibility were correct. The negative predictive value for 97.5% of simulated drug profiles exceeded 95% where the prevalence of drug-resistance was below 47.0%. ConclusionsPhenotypic testing for first-line drugs can be phased down in favour of DNA sequencing to guide anti- tuberculosis drug therapy.

Summary Background Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a significant threat to tuberculosis elimination worldwide. Understanding the transmission pattern is crucial for its control. We used a genomic epidemiological approach to assess the recent transmission of MDR-TB and potential risk factors for transmission. Methods In a population-based retrospective study, we performed variable-number-of-tandem-repeat (VNTR) genotyping, followed by whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of isolates from all MDR-TB patients in Shanghai, China, 2009-2012. We measured strain diversity within and between genomically clustered patients. Genomic and epidemiologic data were combined to construct transmission networks. Findings 367 (5%) of 7982 patients with tuberculosis had MDR tuberculosis and 324 (88%) of these had isolates available for genomic analysis. 103 (32%) of the 324 MDR strains were in 38 genomic clusters that differed by 12 or fewer single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), indicating recent transmission of MDR strains. Patients who had delayed diagnosis or were older than 45 years had high risk of recent transmission. 235 (73%) patients with MDR tuberculosis probably had transmission of MDR strains. Transmission network analysis showed that 33 (87%) of the 38 clusters accumulated additional drug-resistance mutations through emergence or fixation of mutations during transmission. 68 (66%) of 103 clustered MDR strains had compensatory mutations of rifampicin resistance. Interpretation Recent transmission of MDR strains, with increasing drug-resistance, helps drive the MDR-TB epidemic in Shanghai, China. WGS provides a measure of the heterogeneity of drug-resistant mutations within and between hosts and enhances our ability to determine the transmission patterns of MDR-TB. Funding National Science and Technology Major Project, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and US National Insitutes of Health.

Background Population movement could extend multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) transmission and complicate its global prevalence. We sought to identify the high-risk populations and geographic sites of MDR-TB transmission in Shenzhen, the most common destination for internal migrants in China. Methods We performed a population-based, retrospective study in patients diagnosed with MDR-TB in Shenzhen during 2013–2017. By defining genomic clusters with a threshold of 12–single-nucleotide polymorphism distance based on whole-genome sequencing of their clinical strains, the clustering rate was calculated to evaluate the level of recent transmission. Risk factors were identified by multivariable logistic regression. To further delineate the epidemiological links, we invited the genomic-clustered patients to an in-depth social network investigation. Results In total, 105 (25.2%) of the 417 enrolled patients with MDR-TB were grouped into 40 genome clusters, suggesting recent transmission of MDR strains. The adjusted risk for student to have a clustered strain was 4.05 (95% confidence interval, 1.06–17.0) times greater than other patients. The majority (70%, 28/40) of the genomic clusters involved patients who lived in different districts, with residences separated by an average of 8.76 kilometers. Other than household members, confirmed epidemiological links were also identified among classmates and workplace colleagues. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that local transmission of MDR-TB is a serious problem in Shenzhen. While most transmission occurred between people who lived distant from each other, there was clear evidence that transmission occurred in schools and workplaces, which should be included as targeted sites for active case finding. The average residential distance between genomic-clustered cases was more than 8 kilometers, while schools and workplaces, identified as sites of transmission in this study, deserve increased vigilance for targeted case finding of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.