In addition to affecting quality of life, diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) impose an economic burden on both patients and the health system. This study developed a Markov model to analyse the cost-effectiveness of implementing optimal care in comparison with the continuation of usual care for diabetic patients at high risk of DFUs in the Australian setting. The model results demonstrated overall 5-year cost savings (AUD 9100·11 for those aged 35-54, $9391·60 for those aged 55-74 and $12 394·97 for those aged 75 or older) and improved health benefits measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (0·13 QALYs, 0·13 QALYs and 0·16 QALYs, respectively) for high-risk patients receiving optimal care for DFUs compared with usual care. Total cost savings for Australia were estimated at AUD 2·7 billion over 5 years. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that optimal care always had a higher probability of costing less and generating more health benefits. This study provides important evidence to inform Australian policy decisions on the efficient use of health resources and supports the implementation of evidence-based optimal care in Australia. Furthermore, this information is of great importance for comparable developed countries that could reap similar benefits from investing in these well-known evidence-based strategies.

Long-memory models have been used by several authors to model data with persistent autocorrelations. The fractional and fractional autoregressive movingaverage (FARMA) models describe long-memory behavior associated with an in®nite peak in the spectrum at f 0. The Gegenbauer and Gegenbauer ARMA (GARMA) processes of Gray, Zhang and Woodward (On generalized fractional processes. J. Time Ser. Anal. 10 (1989), 233±57) can model long-term periodic behavior for any frequency 0 < f < 0X5. In this paper we introduce a k-factor extension of the Gegenbauer and GARMA models that allows for long-memory behavior to be associated with each of k frequencies in [0, 0X5]. We prove stationarity conditions for the k-factor model and discuss issues such as parameter estimation, model identi®cation, realization generation and forecasting. A two-factor GARMA model is then applied to the Mauna Loa atmospheric CO 2 data. It is shown that this model provides a reasonable ®t to the CO 2 data and produces excellent forecasts.

BackgroundVenous leg ulcers (VLUs) are expensive to treat and impair quality of life of affected individuals. Although improved healing and reduced recurrence rates have been observed following the introduction of evidence-based guidelines, a significant evidence-practice gap exists. Compression is the recommended first-line therapy for treatment of VLUs but unlike many other developed countries, the Australian health system does not subsidise compression therapy. The objective of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of guideline-based care for VLUs that includes public sector reimbursement for compression therapy for affected individuals in Australia.MethodsA Markov model was designed to simulate the progression of VLU for patients receiving guideline-based optimal prevention and treatment, with reimbursement for compression therapy, and then compared to usual care in each State and Territory in Australia. Model inputs were derived from published literature, expert opinion, and government documents. The primary outcomes were changes to costs and health outcomes from a decision to implement guideline-based optimal care compared with the continuation of usual care. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of model results.ResultsGuideline-based optimal care incurred lower total costs and improved quality of life of patients in all States and Territories in Australia regardless of the health service provider. We estimated that providing compression therapy products to affected individuals would cost the health system an additional AUD 270 million over 5 years but would result in cost savings of about AUD 1.4 billion to the health system over the same period. An evaluation of unfavourable values for key model parameters revealed a wide margin of confidence to support the findings.ConclusionsThis study shows that guideline-based optimal care would be a cost-effective and cost-saving strategy to manage VLUs in Australia. Results from this study support wider adoption of guideline-based care for VLUs and the reimbursement of compression therapy. Other countries that face similar issues may benefit from investing in guideline-based wound care.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-018-3234-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Chronic wounds cost the Australian health system at least US$2·85 billion per year. Wound care services in Australia involve a complex mix of treatment options, health care sectors and funding mechanisms. It is clear that implementation of evidence-based wound care coincides with large health improvements and cost savings, yet the majority of Australians with chronic wounds do not receive evidence-based treatment. High initial treatment costs, inadequate reimbursement, poor financial incentives to invest in optimal care and limitations in clinical skills are major barriers to the adoption of evidence-based wound care. Enhanced education and appropriate financial incentives in primary care will improve uptake of evidence-based practice. Secondary-level wound specialty clinics to fill referral gaps in the community, boosted by appropriate credentialing, will improve access to specialist care. In order to secure funding for better services in a competitive environment, evidence of cost-effectiveness is required. Future effort to generate evidence on the cost-effectiveness of wound management interventions should provide evidence that decision makers find easy to interpret. If this happens, and it will require a large effort of health services research, it could be used to inform future policy and decision-making activities, reduce health care costs and improve patient outcomes.

Venous leg ulcers (VLUs) result in substantial economic costs and reduced quality of life (QoL); however, there are few Australian cost estimates, especially using patient‐level data. We measured community‐setting VLU management costs and the impact on the QoL of affected individuals. VLU patients were recruited from a specialist wound clinic, an outpatient clinic, and two community care clinics in Queensland. Cost data were collected at the baseline visit. QoL (EQ‐5D‐5L) and wound status data were collected at baseline, 1, 3, and 6 months. Patients were classified into guideline‐based/optimal care and usual care groups. Average weekly costs per patient were statistically significantly different between the usual care and optimal care groups—$214.61 and $294.72, respectively (P = 0.04). Baseline average QoL score for an unhealed ulcer was significantly higher in the optimal care group compared with usual care (P = 0.025). Time to healing differed between the usual care group and the optimal care group (P = 0.04), with averages of 3.9 and 2.7 months, respectively. These findings increase the understanding of the costs, QoL, and healing outcomes of VLU care. Higher optimal care costs may be offset by faster time to healing. This study provides data to inform an economic evaluation of guideline‐based care for VLUs.