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Background Rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, prompted heightened surveillance in Shenzhen, China. The resulting data provide a rare opportunity to measure key metrics of disease course, transmission, and the impact of control measures.Methods From Jan 14 to Feb 12, 2020, the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 1286 close contacts. We compared cases identified through symptomatic surveillance and contact tracing, and estimated the time from symptom onset to confirmation, isolation, and admission to hospital. We estimated metrics of disease transmission and analysed factors influencing transmission risk.Findings Cases were older than the general population (mean age 45 years) and balanced between males (n=187) and females (n=204). 356 (91%) of 391 cases had mild or moderate clinical severity at initial assessment. As of Feb 22, 2020, three cases had died and 225 had recovered (median time to recovery 21 days; 95% CI 20-22). Cases were isolated on average 4•6 days (95% CI 4•1-5•0) after developing symptoms; contact tracing reduced this by 1•9 days (95% CI 1•1-2•7). Household contacts and those travelling with a case were at higher risk of infection (odds ratio 6•27 [95% CI 1•49-26•33] for household contacts and 7•06 [1•43-34•91] for those travelling with a case) than other close contacts. The household secondary attack rate was 11•2% (95% CI 9•1-13•8), and children were as likely to be infected as adults (infection rate 7•4% in children <10 years vs population average of 6•6%). The observed reproductive number (R) was 0•4 (95% CI 0•3-0•5), with a mean serial interval of 6•3 days (95% CI 5•2-7•6).Interpretation Our data on cases as well as their infected and uninfected close contacts provide key insights into the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. This analysis shows that isolation and contact tracing reduce the time during which cases are infectious in the community, thereby reducing the R. The overall impact of isolation and contact tracing, however, is uncertain and highly dependent on the number of asymptomatic cases. Moreover, children are at a similar risk of infection to the general population, although less likely to have severe symptoms; hence they should be considered in analyses of transmission and control.

BackgroundRapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan prompted heightened surveillance in Shenzhen and elsewhere in China. The resulting data provide a rare opportunity to measure key metrics of disease course, transmission, and the impact of control. MethodsThe Shenzhen CDC identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases from January 14 to February 12, 2020 and 1286 close contacts. We compare cases identified through symptomatic surveillance and contact tracing, and estimate the time from symptom onset to confirmation, isolation, and hospitalization. We estimate metrics of disease transmission and analyze factors influencing transmission risk. FindingsCases were older than the general population (mean age 45) and balanced between males (187) and females (204). Ninety-one percent had mild or moderate clinical severity at initial assessment. Three have died, 225 have recovered (median time to recovery is 32 days). Cases were isolated on average 4.6 days after developing symptoms; contact tracing reduced this by 1.9 days. Household contacts and those travelling with a case where at higher risk of infection (ORs 6 and 7) than other close contacts. The household secondary attack rate was 15%, and children were as likely to be infected as adults. The observed reproductive number was 0.4, with a mean serial interval of 6.3 days. InterpretationOur data on cases as well as their infected and uninfected close contacts provide key insights into SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology. This work shows that heightened surveillance and isolation, particularly contact tracing, reduces the time cases are infectious in the community, thereby reducing R . Its overall impact, however, is uncertain and highly dependent on the number of asymptomatic cases. We further show that children are at similar risk of infection as the general population, though less likely to have severe symptoms; hence should be considered in analyses of transmission and control.

First discovered in 1947, Zika virus (ZIKV) infection remained a little known tropical disease until 2015, when its apparent association with a significant increase in the incidence of microcephaly in Brazil raised alarms worldwide. There is limited information on the key factors that determine the extent of the global threat from ZIKV infection and resulting complications. Here, we review what is known about the epidemiology, natural history and public health impact of ZIKV infection; the empirical basis for this knowledge; and the critical knowledge gaps that need to be filled.

Background Understanding the drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is crucial for control policies but evidence of transmission rates in different settings remains limited. Methods We conducted a systematic review to estimate secondary attack rates (SAR) and observed reproduction numbers (Robs) in different settings exploring differences by age, symptom status, and duration of exposure. To account for additional study heterogeneity, we employed a Beta-Binomial model to pool SARs across studies and a Negative-binomial model to estimate Robs. Results Households showed the highest transmission rates, with a pooled SAR of 21.1% (95%CI:17.4%-24.8%). SARs were significantly higher where the duration of household exposure exceeded 5 days compared with exposure of ≤5 days. SARs related to contacts at social events with family and friends were higher than those for low-risk casual contacts (5.9% vs. 1.2%). Estimates of SAR and Robs for asymptomatic index cases were approximately a seventh, and for pre-symptomatic two thirds of those for symptomatic index cases. We found some evidence for reduced transmission potential both from and to individuals under 20 years of age in the household context, which is more limited when examining all settings. Conclusions Our results suggest that exposure in settings with familiar contacts increases SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential. Additionally, the differences observed in transmissibility by index case symptom status and duration of exposure have important implications for control strategies such as contact tracing, testing and rapid isolation of cases. There was limited data to explore transmission patterns in workplaces, schools, and care-homes, highlighting the need for further research in such settings.