Short-term forecast of pertussis incidence is helpful for advanced warning and planning resource needs for future epidemics. By utilizing the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model as alterative models with R software, this paper analyzed data from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) between January 2005 and June 2016. The ARIMA (0,1,0)(1,1,1)12 model (AICc = 1342.2 BIC = 1350.3) was selected as the best performing ARIMA model and the ETS (M,N,M) model (AICc = 1678.6, BIC = 1715.4) was selected as the best performing ETS model, and the ETS (M,N,M) model with the minimum RMSE was finally selected for in-sample-simulation and out-of-sample forecasting. Descriptive statistics showed that the reported number of pertussis cases by China CDC increased by 66.20% from 2005 (4058 cases) to 2015 (6744 cases). According to Hodrick-Prescott filter, there was an apparent cyclicity and seasonality in the pertussis reports. In out of sample forecasting, the model forecasted a relatively high incidence cases in 2016, which predicates an increasing risk of ongoing pertussis resurgence in the near future. In this regard, the ETS model would be a useful tool in simulating and forecasting the incidence of pertussis, and helping decision makers to take efficient decisions based on the advanced warning of disease incidence.

Višekriterijumsko kompromisno rangiranje (VIKOR) method is one of the commonly used multi criteria decision making (MCDM) methods for improving the quality of decision making. VIKOR has an advantage in providing a ranking procedure for positive attributes and negative attributes when it is used and examined in decision support. However, we noticed that this method may failed to support an objective result in medical field because most medical data have normal reference ranges (e.g., for normally distributed data: NRR ∈ [μ ± 1.96σ], this limitation shows a negative effect on the acceptance of it as an effective decision supporting method in medical decision making. This paper proposes an improved VIKOR method with enhanced accuracy (ea-VIKOR) to make it suitable for such data in medical field by introducing a new data normalization method taking the original distance to the normal reference range (ODNRR) into account. In addition, an experimental example was presented to demonstrate efficiency and feasibility of the ea-VIKOR method, the results demonstrate the ability of ea-VIKOR to deal with moderate data and support the decision making in healthcare care management. For this reason, the ea-VIKOR should be considered for use as a decision support tool for future study.

IntroductionPatients with COPD often show increased systemic inflammation which is associated with lower functional status, greater exacerbation risk, and worse clinical outcomes. Syndecans (SDCs), a family of transmembrane heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs), have been found to involve in inflammatory processes in many chronic inflammatory diseases. The aim of this preliminary clinical study was to investigate the possible association between two SDCs, SDC-1 and SDC-4, with lung function, systemic inflammation, and risk of exacerbations in COPD patients.MethodSerum SDC-1 and SDC-4 levels were measured in 101 COPD patients and 57 health controls. Correlations between SDCs and other parameters were analyzed using Spearsman’s rho. Receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate the threshold value in differentiating disease status.ResultsAlthough both serum SDC-1 and SDC-4 showed a downward trend in COPD patients, only SDC-1 levels were correlated positively with the ratio of FEV1/FVC and parameters of small airway obstruction. Besides, SDC-1 but not SDC-4, was negatively correlated with C-reactive protein (CRP) in COPD patients and downregulated in frequent exacerbators (FEs) of COPD. Using a cutoff value of 2.08 ng/mL, the sensitivity and specificity of SDC-1 to differentiate FE were 44% and 93.4%, respectively.ConclusionIn conclusion, circulating SDC-1 may be a novel inflammatory biomarker associated with lung function and systemic inflammation in patients with COPD, which could also be useful to identify the risk of COPD exacerbation. Further studies should be performed to clarify the influences of SDC-1 on the pathogenesis and outcomes of COPD.

Background: MicroRNAs (miRNAs), a class of small non-coding, highly stable RNAs, have been reported to have diagnostic value for variety types of cancers. Objectives: To assess the diagnostic value of circulating miR-145 for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by using systemic review and meta-analysis. Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted in five databases until 20 February 2020 to identify diagnostic trials of miR-145 in the diagnosis of NSCLC. The quality of included studies was assessed by the QUADAS-2 tool with Review Manager 5.3, and the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve was plotted by STATA 13.1 software. Results: A total of 1394 patients from 11 data sets in trials (published in nine studies) were recruited. The area under the curve of the SROC was 0.83. According to the meta regression, the specimen selection was considered the source of heterogeneity, the SROC in serum (0.90 (95% CI 0.87, 0.92), the sensitivity was 0.84 (95% CI 0.79, 0.89), and the specificity was 0.80 (95% CI 0.71, 0.89)) was obviously higher than that in plasma (SROC=0.75). Conclusion: Serum miR-145 might be served as a potentially useful biomarker for NSCLC diagnosis. However, due to the existing limited-quality research, more large-scale and multicenter studies are required for further verification.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa relies on its complex cellular regulatory network to produce a series of virulence factors and to cause various acute and chronic infections in a wide range of hosts. Compared with traditional antibiotics which frequently accompany with widespread antibiotic resistance, crippling the virulence system of bacteria is expected to be a promising anti-infective strategy. In this study, Dimetridazole and Ribavirin, which had poor antibacterial activities on P. aeruginosa reference isolate PAO1 in nutrient medium but significantly inhibited the growth of P. aeruginosa PAO1 in M9-adenosine, were selected from 40 marketed compounds with similar core structure (furan, benzofuran, or flavonoids) to the acyl-homoserine lactone signals of P. aeruginosa quorum sensing (QS) system. The production of QS-controlled proteases, pyocyanin, and biofilm formation of P. aeruginosa PAO1 and the clinical isolates were significantly decreased by the presence of Dimetridazole or Ribavirin. Correspondingly, the majority of QS-activated genes in P. aeruginosa, including the key regulatory genes lasR, rhlR, and pqsR and their downstream genes, were significantly inhibited by Ribavirin or Dimetridazole, as determined by RNA-sequencing and quantitative PCR. Furthermore, the susceptibilities of drug-resistant P. aeruginosa isolates to polymyxin B, meropenem, and kanamycin were remarkably promoted by the synergistic application of Dimetridazole or Ribavirin. Finally, the treatment of Ribavirin or Dimetridazole effectively protected Caenorhabditis elegans and mice from P. aeruginosa infection. In conclusion, this study reports the antivirulence potentials of Dimetridazole and Ribavirin on P. aeruginosa and provides structural basis and methodological reference for the development of anti-pseudomonal drugs.