Nationwide nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been effective at mitigating the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but their broad impact on other diseases remains under-investigated. Here we report an ecological analysis comparing the incidence of 31 major notifiable infectious diseases in China in 2020 to the average level during 2014-2019, controlling for temporal phases defined by NPI intensity levels. Respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases declined more than sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases and vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Early pandemic phases with more stringent NPIs were associated with greater reductions in disease incidence. Non-respiratory diseases, such as hand, foot and mouth disease, rebounded substantially towards the end of the year 2020 as the NPIs were relaxed. Statistical modeling analyses confirm that strong NPIs were associated with a broad mitigation effect on communicable diseases, but resurgence of non-respiratory diseases should be expected when the NPIs, especially restrictions of human movement and gathering, become less stringent.
Background
To combat the COVID-19 pandemic, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) were implemented worldwide, which impacted a broad spectrum of acute respiratory infections (ARI).
Methods
Etiologically diagnostic data from 142 559 cases with ARIs, who were tested for eight viral pathogens (influenza virus, IFV; respiratory syncytial virus, RSV; human parainfluenza virus, HPIV; human adenovirus; human metapneumovirus; human coronavirus, HCoV; human bocavirus, HBoV, and human rhinovirus, HRV) between 2012 and 2021, were analyzed to assess the changes of respiratory infections in China during the first COVID-19 pandemic year compared to pre-pandemic years.
Results
Test positive rates of all respiratory viruses decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012−2019, with changes ranging from -17·2% for RSV to -87·6% for IFV. Sharp decreases mostly occurred between February and August when massive NPIs remained active, although HRV rebounded to the historical level during the summer. While IFV and HMPV were consistently suppressed year round, RSV, HPIV, HCoV, HRV HBov resurged and went beyond historical levels during September, 2020−January, 2021, after NPIs were largely relaxed and schools reopened. Resurgence was more prominent among children younger than 18 years and in Northern China. These observations remain valid after accounting for seasonality and long-term trend of each virus.
Conclusions
Activities of respiratory viral infections were reduced substantially in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, and massive NPIs were likely the main driver. Lifting of NPIs can lead to resurgence of viral infections, particularly in children.
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