Using plot level panel data and multinomial endogenous switching regression, this article analyzes the adoption and welfare impacts of multiple agricultural technologies in eastern Zambia. We adapt a multinomial endogenous switching/treatment effect regression framework to correct for selection bias and endogeneity originating from both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. Results indicate that joint adoption of multiple agricultural technologies had greater impacts on crop yields, household incomes, and poverty than the adoption of individual components of the technology package. Our findings suggest that efforts aimed at raising household incomes and reducing poverty should focus on promoting the adoption of multiple agricultural technologies through provision of improved support services such as extension and input supply.JEL classifications: C34, O12, O33, Q12, Q16, Q18

This study undertakes an ex‐ante evaluation of the effects of alternative technology and policy options on soybean supply and demand in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) to 2050. Current soybean consumption in SSA is dominated by cooking oil followed by soybean cake used as animal feed. Due to weak processing sectors and low soybean yields, the region is currently importing about 70% of its consumption requirements. Based on the results from a geospatial bio‐economic modeling framework, soybean consumption in SSA is projected to more than double by 2050 compared to 2010 due in part to a rising population and rising incomes. On the other hand, supply from domestic production is projected to increase by 80% over the same period. Hence, by 2050, net imports into SSA would be nearly 4 times higher than supply from domestic production. Under a future drier climate, some of the production gains achieved through soybean research and extension would be lost and this would further worsen the soybean demand gap in SSA relative to the baseline. This study shows that relying on conventional breeding alone to increase soybean yields in SSA would not be enough to substantially reduce the future demand gap. A combination of promising innovations affecting the soybean value chain across SSA would be needed to close the soybean demand gap in SSA by 2050 under a drier future climate.

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