Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here on a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid change to an input or parameter of a system may cause the system to 'tip' or move away from a branch of attractors. Such rate-dependent tipping, or R-tipping, need not be associated with either bifurcations or noise. We present an example of all three types of tipping in a simple global energy balance model of the climate system, illustrating the possibility of dangerous rates of change even in the absence of noise and of bifurcations in the underlying quasi-static system.

Suppose that a dynamical system possesses an invariant submanifold, and the restriction of the system to this submanifold has a chaotic attractor A. Under which conditions is A an attractor for the original system, and in what sense?We characterize the transverse dynamics near A in terms of the normal Liapunov spectrum of A. In particular, we emphasize the role of invariant measures on A. Our results identify the points at which A: (1) ceases to be asymptotically stable, possibly developing a locally riddled basin; (2) ceases to be an attractor; (3) becomes a transversely repelling chaotic saddle. We show, in the context of what we call 'normal parameters' how these transitions can be viewed as being robust. Finally, we discuss some numerical examples displaying these transitions.

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