Excessive and unsustainable fishing mortality was the predominant factor in the depletion of Northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks. However, despite imposition of severe catch restrictions for over a decade, stocks have mostly failed to recover at predicted rates. A number of explanations have been considered. Our analysis of demographic characteristics of 12 of these stocks indicates that recent productivity over the northern portion of the range is much lower than 20 years previous when several stocks recovered from less severe declines. Main contributing factors are, in rank order, increased natural mortality, decreased body growth, and in a few cases, reduced recruitment rates. Continued fishing in directed and bycatch fisheries is also an important factor. Under current conditions, we estimate negative or very low (<2% per year) average growth rates in eight stocks. If fishing ceases, growth rates of >5% would be expected in six stocks, with >10% in four of these. Although productivity is low, we conclude that fishing mortality is further delaying recovery.

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After 7 years of a moratorium on northern cod (Gadus morhua), there is no convincing evidence that recovery has commenced. Under the simple assumption of linear density dependence, rapid population growth is predicted. That this has not transpired leads to consideration of less simple assumptions regarding density dependence, such as depensation.

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