SummaryBackgroundLow-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.MethodsWe did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose–response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th–95th percentile 1·04–13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.FindingsIn the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10–1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00–1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03–1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15–1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03–1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91–0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0–≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100–≤200 g per week, >200–≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1–2 years, or 4–5 years, respectively.InterpretationIn current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being ...

385 PULMONARY PROCEDURESsuspicious for lung cancer. 2 With the fi ndings of the NLST indicating a reduction in lung-cancer-specifi c mortality with CT scanning in at-risk people, the number of patients diagnosed with a PN could increase substantially if screening for lung cancer is broadly T he pulmonary nodule (PN) is becoming an increasingly common radiographic fi nding among patients in the United States. Nearly 45 million CT scan examinations are performed each year, and 11% to 30% (4.5-14 million) of those include an examination of the chest. 1 In the recently released National Cancer Institute-sponsored National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), . 25% of the group who underwent lowdose CT scans of the chest had examinations that were Background: The detection of pulmonary nodules (PNs) is likely to increase, especially with the release of the National Lung Screen Trials. When tissue diagnosis is desired, transthoracic needle aspiration (TTNA) is recommended. Several guided-bronchoscopy technologies have been developed to improve the yield of transbronchial biopsy for PN diagnosis: electromagnetic navigation bronchoscopy (ENB ), virtual bronchoscopy (VB), radial endobronchial ultrasound (R-EBUS), ultrathin bronchoscope, and guide sheath. We undertook this meta-analysis to determine the overall diagnostic yield of guided bronchoscopy using one or a combination of the modalities described here. Methods: We performed a MEDLINE search using "bronchoscopy" and "solitary pulmonary nodule." Studies evaluating the diagnostic yield of ENB, VB, R-EBUS, ultrathin bronchoscope, and/or guide sheath for peripheral nodules were included. The overall diagnostic yield and yield based on size were extracted. Adverse events, if reported, were recorded. Meta-analysis techniques incorporating inverse variance weighting and a random-effects meta-analysis approach were used. Results: A total of 3,052 lesions from 39 studies were included. The pooled diagnostic yield was 70%, which is higher than the yield for traditional transbronchial biopsy. The yield increased as the lesion size increased. The pneumothorax rate was 1.5%, which is signifi cantly smaller than that reported for TTNA. Conclusion: This meta-analysis shows that the diagnostic yield of guided bronchoscopic techniques is better than that of traditional transbronchial biopsy. Although the yield remains lower than that of TTNA, the procedural risk is lower. Guided bronchoscopy may be an alternative or be complementary to TTNA for tissue sampling of PN, but further study is needed to determine its role in the evaluation of peripheral pulmonary lesions.CHEST 2012; 142(2):385-393Abbreviations: ENB 5 electromagnetic navigation bronchoscopy; NLST 5 National Lung Screening Trial; PN 5 pulmonary nodule; R-EBUS 5 radial endobronchial ultrasound; TTNA 5 transthoracic needle aspiration; VB 5 virtual bronchoscopy

The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age-and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689 300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128 843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499 808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths).Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates.EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESAll-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTSIn participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEMortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Background The purpose of this study was to determine whether patients with heart failure and a preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have an increase in passive myocardial stiffness and the extent to which discovered changes are dependent on changes in extracellular matrix fibrillar collagen and/or cardiomyocyte titin. Methods and Results Seventy patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting underwent an echocardiogram, plasma biomarker determination, and intra-operative left ventricular (LV) epicardial anterior wall biopsy. Patients were divided into 3 groups: referent control (n=17, no hypertension or diabetes), hypertension (HTN) without(-) HFpEF (n=31), and HTN with(+) HFpEF (n=22). One or more of the following studies were performed on the biopsies: passive stiffness measurements to determine total, collagen-dependent and titin-dependent stiffness (differential extraction assay), collagen assays (biochemistry or histology), or titin isoform and phosphorylation assays. Compared with controls, patients with HTN(-)HFpEF had no change in LV end diastolic pressure (LVEDP), myocardial passive stiffness, collagen, or titin phosphorylation but had an increase in biomarkers of inflammation (CRP, sST2, TIMP-1). Compared with both control and HTN(-)HFpEF, patients with HTN(+)HFpEF had increased LVEDP, left atrial volume, NT-proBNP, total, collagen-dependent and titin-dependent stiffness, insoluble collagen, increased titin phosphorylation on PEVK S11878(S26), reduced phosphorylation on N2B S4185(S469), and increased biomarkers of inflammation. Conclusions Hypertension in the absence of HFpEF, did not alter passive myocardial stiffness. Patients with HTN(+)HFpEF had a significant increase in passive myocardial stiffness; collagen-dependent and titin-dependent stiffness were increased. These data suggest that the development of HFpEF is dependent on changes in both collagen and titin homeostasis.

Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0•685 (95% CI 0•629-0•741) to 0•833 (0•783-0•882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide.