Scorpionism is a public health problem in several regions of the world. The highest mortality, with over 1000 deaths per year, has been reported in Mexico. We analysed the significance of climatological variables to predict the incidence of scorpion stings in humans in the state of Colima (Mexico) for the years 2000-2001. The pluvial precipitation (mm), the evaporation (mm), and the mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures (degrees C) were obtained from local meteorological offices. There are approximately 3 stings/year per 1000 people in municipalities of Colima and Villa de Alvarez and about 18-30 stings/year per 1000 people in the rest of the municipalities. There is very little rain and there are few stings in the winter when the minimum temperature is below about 16 degrees C. The number of scorpion stings is independent of the actual rainfall when this is above 30 mm/month. Using multiple linear regression, we used a backward model selection procedure to estimate that the minimum temperature is correlated with scorpion sting incidence with a statistically significance of 95%. We briefly discuss the application of predictive models of scorpion sting incidence in the appropriate allocation of antivenom serum in hospital clinics.
We model an outbreak of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) using a simple epidemic model that includes susceptible, infectious, reported, and recovered classes. The model's framework considers the impact of underreporting and behaviour changes on the transmission rate and is applied to a recent epidemic of AHC in Mexico, using a fit to the cumulative number of cases to estimate model parameters, which agree with those derived from clinical studies. The model predicts a 'mean time from symptomatic onset to diagnosis' of 1.43 days (95 per cent CI: 1-2.5) and that the final size of the Mexican epidemic was underreported by 39 per cent. We estimate that a primary infectious case generates approximately 3 secondary cases (R0* = 2.64, SD 0.65). We explore the impact of interventions on the final epidemic size, and estimate a 36 per cent reduction in the transmission rate due to behaviour changes. The effectiveness of the behaviour changes in slowing the epidemic is evident at 21.90 (SD 0.19) days after the first reported case. Results therefore support current public health policy including expeditious announcement of the outbreak and public health information press releases that instruct individuals on avoiding contagion and encourage them to seek diagnosis in hospital clinics.
Tuberculosis is a public health problem in Mexico. From 1999 to 2002, we assessed retrospectively the epidemiological, clinical, and treatment characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in the hospitals of the Mexican Institute of Public Health in the state of Colima (Mexico). We included 184 cases diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis. A database containing demographic, epidemiological, and clinical information was constructed and analyzed. We estimate a median patient delay of 83 d and a mean treatment delay of 2.3 d. Of 14 cases suspected for multiresistance and microbiologically assayed, 5 were found to carry a multi-drug-resistant strain. We also found a significant association between a short patient delay and the presence of hemoptysis (p = 0.002) or dyspnea (p<0.001). 86 patients (46.8%) were sputum smear microscopy negative at the end of treatment and 40 (21.7%) completed treatment giving an overall success rate of 68.5%, which compares unfavorably with the World Health Organization target success rate of 85%. Five (2.7%) patients failed treatment, 10 (5.4%) died, 39 (21.2%) interrupted treatment, and 4 (2.2%) transferred to another reporting unit. A 2002 strategic change in drug distribution seemed to prove successful.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.