6 chain to the destination becomes more complicated. This leads to an increase in the operating costs of a railroad system compared to railroads that follow the system of train traffic on schedule. To improve the competitiveness of a railroad system within which the traffic of trains fails to follow a timetable, it is important to build the functional for a periodic notification about the state of train dispatch. One of the important notification functions is the calculation of the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of a cargo dispatch [2]. Within the framework of the ETA calculation, which is determined for a cargo dispatch at each railroad station 1. Introduction Given the conditions of automation and digitalization of all industries, increasing the level of predictability of the technological process of a rail system transportation is a necessary requirement to reduce the cost of supply chains [1]. The operating model of railroad systems without following the schedule of freight trains possesses a considerable degree of uncertainty in the cargo transportation process. In such systems, the possibility of predicting the duration of operations involving cargo dispatch along a transportation
It is important to find rational values of time reserves to compensate for delays during train movement to ensure train schedule reliability. This study proposes to investigate the impact of different categories of trains and their time reserve on schedule reliability. The main purpose of the study is to develop a method for studying the extent of the impact of time reserve on train schedule reliability based on the epidemiological model. Mathematical train delay propagation at the section model has been developed on the basis of the Susceptible – Infected – Removed (SIR) epidemiological model of adaptation type (taking into account the effect of using different train categories. It is suggested to use a binary genetic algorithm to search for parameters of delay propagation rate in the SIR model. According to a specially developed data acquisition algorithm, empirical data on the propagation of train delays at the station were obtained. Experimental studies have been carried out to search for train delay propagation velocity coefficients in the SIR model. The train movement restoration results during a delay at the station are given to study the impact of the time reserve value on train schedule reliability, taking into account the speed recovery delay set in the SIR model. The simulation results confirm the developed mathematical model adequacy.
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