a b s t r a c tThe German government has set itself the target of reducing the country's GHG emissions by between 80 and 95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Alongside energy efficiency, renewable energy sources are set to play the main role in this transition. However, the large-scale deployment of renewable energies is expected to cause increased demand for critical mineral resources. The aim of this article is therefore to determine whether the transformation of the German energy system by 2050 ("Energiewende") may possibly be restricted by a lack of critical minerals, focusing primarily on the power sector (generating, transporting and storing electricity from renewable sources). For the relevant technologies, we create roadmaps describing a number of conceivable quantitative market developments in Germany. Estimating the current and future specific material demand of the options selected and projecting them along a range of long-term energy scenarios allows us to assess potential medium-or long-term mineral resource restrictions. The main conclusion we draw is that the shift towards an energy system based on renewable sources that is currently being pursued is principally compatible with the geological availability and supply of mineral resources. In fact, we identified certain sub-technologies as being critical with regard to potential supply risks, owing to dependencies on a small number of supplier countries and competing uses. These sub-technologies are certain wind power plants requiring neodymium and dysprosium, thin-film CIGS photovoltaic cells using indium and selenium, and largescale redox flow batteries using vanadium. However, non-critical alternatives to these technologies do indeed exist. The likelihood of supplies being restricted can be decreased further by cooperating even more closely with companies in the supplier countries and their governments, and by establishing greater resource efficiency and recyclability as key elements of technology development.
Thermal insulation strategies in the household sector and its contribution to material efficiency and reducing emissions -a long-term analysis up to 2050Abstract An often controversial question is whether a massive insulation of houses in the overall balance does not cause more resource consumption and emissions than it saves in the end. To investigate this question, for the first time a trade-off analysis has been performed. For this, a bottom-up impact analysis model was developed, whose core forms an emissions-and energy model for the household sector which is coupled with a life cycle assessment tool. Both models provide the framework for energy scenarios to 2050, claiming for each decade refurbishment rates and energy mixes. Thus, "pure" energy scenarios can be extended by resource policy analyses and the effects of various insulation strategies might be determined.The central result of modeling is that additional costs are compensated for insulating (extruded polystyrene foam XPS and cellulose were examined) both resource-and emission-side in almost all environmental impact categories with significant savings in building heating. Essentially, there are no trade-offs identified, and the percentage contribution of the insulating materials on the environmental impact indicators is low. In contrast, the choice of foaming agent in the foamed XPS insulation is relevant: Compared with the XPS used in Germany, which is largely CO 2 foamed insulation, one which has a high proportion of HFCs, leads to a
Thermal insulation strategies in the household sector and its contribution to material efficiency and reducing emissions -a long-term analysis up to 2050Abstract An often controversial question is whether a massive insulation of houses in the overall balance does not cause more resource consumption and emissions than it saves in the end. To investigate this question, for the first time a trade-off analysis has been performed. For this, a bottom-up impact analysis model was developed, whose core forms an emissions-and energy model for the household sector which is coupled with a life cycle assessment tool. Both models provide the framework for energy scenarios to 2050, claiming for each decade refurbishment rates and energy mixes. Thus, "pure" energy scenarios can be extended by resource policy analyses and the effects of various insulation strategies might be determined.The central result of modeling is that additional costs are compensated for insulating (extruded polystyrene foam XPS and cellulose were examined) both resource-and emission-side in almost all environmental impact categories with significant savings in building heating. Essentially, there are no trade-offs identified, and the percentage contribution of the insulating materials on the environmental impact indicators is low. In contrast, the choice of foaming agent in the foamed XPS insulation is relevant: Compared with the XPS used in Germany, which is largely CO 2 foamed insulation, one which has a high proportion of HFCs, leads to a
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