Persistence of acute viruses
How do highly contagious viruses that cause acute infections hang on to cause recurrent problems in a population? It should be expected that such infections would fade out as herd immunity develops, but foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) can reemerge. Jolles
et al
. explored how FMDV remains endemic in African buffalo and serves as a reservoir for disease in domestic livestock (see the Perspective by Hampson and Haydon). The authors found that the virus persists in the population in carrier animals. Inconspicuous, rare, and sporadic transmission rescues the virus from fade-out, assisted by antigenic shift and the seasonal birth of susceptible calves. —CA
The spores of the soil-borne bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, which causes anthrax are highly resistant to adverse environmental conditions. Under ideal conditions, anthrax spores can survive for many years in the soil. Anthrax is known to be endemic in the northern part of Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa (SA), with occasional epidemics spreading southward. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas that are ecologically suitable for the harboring of B. anthracis spores within the KNP. Anthrax surveillance data and selected environmental variables were used as inputs to the maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling method. Anthrax positive carcasses from 1988–2011 in KNP (n = 597) and a total of 40 environmental variables were used to predict and evaluate their relative contribution to suitability for anthrax occurrence in KNP. The environmental variables that contributed the most to the occurrence of anthrax were soil type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation. Apart from the endemic Pafuri region, several other areas within KNP were classified as ecologically suitable. The outputs of this study could guide future surveillance efforts to focus on predicted suitable areas for anthrax, since the KNP currently uses passive surveillance to detect anthrax outbreaks.
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