Chinese caterpillar fungus (
Ophiocordyceps sinensis
) is a precious traditional medicine which is mostly distributed on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Due to its medicinal values, it has become one of the most valuable biological commodities and widely traded in recent years worldwide. However, its habitat has changed profoundly in recent years under global warming as well as anthropogenic pressures, resulting in a sharp decline in its wild population in recent years. Based on the occurrence samples, this paper estimates the potential distribution of caterpillar fungus using MaxEnt model. The model simulates potential geographical distribution of the species under current climate conditions, and examine future distributions under different climatic change scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 have been modelled in 2050s and 2070s, respectively). For examining the impacts of climate change in future, the integrated effects of climatic impact, trading, and overexploitation had been analyzed in detailed routes. The results show that: 1) The distribution patterns of caterpillar fungus under scenario RCP 2.6 have been predicted without obvious changes. However, range shift has been observed with significant shrinks across all classes of suitable areas in Tianshan, Kunlun Mountains, and the southwestern QTP in 2050s and 2070s under RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. 2) The exports were decreasing drastically in recent years. Guangzhou and Hongkong are two international super import and consumption centres of caterpillar fungus in the world. 3) Both ecological and economic sustainable utilization of the caterpillar fungus has been threatened by the combined pressures of climate change and overexploitation. A strict but effective regulation and protection system, even a systematic management plan not just on the collectors but the whole explore process are urgently needed and has to be issued in the QTP.
Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.
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