In the financial year ending June 2002, 26 689 hip replacements and 26 089 knee replacements (total, 52 778) were performed in Australia. Hip and knee replacement procedures have increased between 5%–10% each year for the past 10 years, with a combined increase in hip and knee replacement of 13.4% in the past year. The revision rate for hip replacement surgery in Australia is unknown but is estimated to be 20%–24%; the revision rate for hip replacement surgery in Sweden is 7%. Although data collection for the Registry is voluntary, it has 100% compliance from hospitals undertaking joint‐replacement surgery

ImportanceThere remains a lack of randomized trials investigating aspirin monotherapy for symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis following total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA).ObjectiveTo determine whether aspirin was noninferior to enoxaparin in preventing symptomatic VTE after THA or TKA.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsCluster-randomized, crossover, registry-nested trial across 31 hospitals in Australia. Clusters were hospitals performing greater than 250 THA or TKA procedures annually. Patients (aged ≥18 years) undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty procedures were enrolled at each hospital. Patients receiving preoperative anticoagulation or who had a medical contraindication to either study drug were excluded. A total of 9711 eligible patients were enrolled (5675 in the aspirin group and 4036 in the enoxaparin group) between April 20, 2019, and December 18, 2020. Final follow-up occurred on August 14, 2021.InterventionsHospitals were randomized to administer aspirin (100 mg/d) or enoxaparin (40 mg/d) for 35 days after THA and for 14 days after TKA. Crossover occurred after the patient enrollment target had been met for the first group. All 31 hospitals were initially randomized and 16 crossed over prior to trial cessation.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary outcome was symptomatic VTE within 90 days, including pulmonary embolism and deep venous thrombosis (DVT) (above or below the knee). The noninferiority margin was 1%. Six secondary outcomes are reported, including death and major bleeding within 90 days. Analyses were performed by randomization group.ResultsEnrollment was stopped after an interim analysis determined the stopping rule was met, with 9711 patients (median age, 68 years; 56.8% female) of the prespecified 15 562 enrolled (62%). Of these, 9203 (95%) completed the trial. Within 90 days of surgery, symptomatic VTE occurred in 256 patients, including pulmonary embolism (79 cases), above-knee DVT (18 cases), and below-knee DVT (174 cases). The symptomatic VTE rate in the aspirin group was 3.45% and in the enoxaparin group was 1.82% (estimated difference, 1.97%; 95% CI, 0.54%-3.41%). This failed to meet the criterion for noninferiority for aspirin and was significantly superior for enoxaparin (P = .007). Of 6 secondary outcomes, none were significantly better in the enoxaparin group compared with the aspirin group.Conclusions and RelevanceAmong patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis, aspirin compared with enoxaparin resulted in a significantly higher rate of symptomatic VTE within 90 days, defined as below- or above-knee DVT or pulmonary embolism. These findings may be informed by a cost-effectiveness analysis.Trial RegistrationANZCTR Identifier: ACTRN12618001879257

Importance COVID-19 is causing high mortality worldwide. Developing models to quantify the risk of poor outcomes in infected patients could help develop strategies to shield the most vulnerable during de-confinement. Objective To develop and externally validate COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) scores that quantify a patient's risk of hospital admission (COVER-H), requiring intensive services (COVER-I), or fatality (COVER-F) in the 30-days following COVID-19 diagnosis. Design Multinational, distributed network cohorts. Setting We analyzed a federated network of electronic medical records and administrative claims data from 13 data sources and 6 countries, mapped to a common data model. Participants Model development used a patient population consisting of >2 million patients with a general practice (GP), emergency room (ER), or outpatient (OP) visit with diagnosed influenza or flu-like symptoms any time prior to 2020. The model was validated on patients with a GP, ER, or OP visit in 2020 with a confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis across four databases from South Korea, Spain and the United States. Outcomes Age, sex, historical conditions, and drug use prior to index date were considered as candidate predictors. Outcomes included i) hospitalization with pneumonia, ii) hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death, and iii) death in the 30 days after index date. Results Overall, 43,061 COVID-19 patients were included for model validation, after initial model development and validation using 6,869,127 patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms. We identified 7 predictors (history of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and kidney disease) which combined with age and sex could discriminate which patients would experience any of our three outcomes. The models achieved high performance in influenza. When transported to COVID-19 cohorts, the AUC ranges were, COVER-H: 0.73-0.81, COVER-I: 0.73-0.91, and COVER-F: 0.82-0.90. Calibration was overall acceptable, with overestimated risk in the most elderly and highest risk strata. Conclusions and relevance A 9-predictor model performs well for COVID-19 patients for predicting hospitalization, intensive services and death. The models could aid in providing reassurance for low risk patients and shield high risk patients from COVID-19 during de-confinement to reduce the virus' impact on morbidity and mortality.

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