To assess the spectrum of illness from toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 and risk factors for severe cholera in Haiti, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in a rural commune with more than 21,000 residents. During March 22–April 6, 2011, we interviewed 2,622 residents ≥ 2 years of age and tested serum specimens from 2,527 (96%) participants for vibriocidal and antibodies against cholera toxin; 18% of participants reported a cholera diagnosis, 39% had vibriocidal titers ≥ 320, and 64% had vibriocidal titers ≥ 80, suggesting widespread infection. Among seropositive participants (vibriocidal titers ≥ 320), 74.5% reported no diarrhea and 9.0% had severe cholera (reported receiving intravenous fluids and overnight hospitalization). This high burden of severe cholera is likely explained by the lack of pre-existing immunity in this population, although the virulence of the atypical El Tor strain causing the epidemic and other factors might also play a role.

An outbreak of cholera began in Haiti in October of 2010. To understand the progression of epidemic cholera in Haiti, in April of 2012, we initiated laboratory-enhanced surveillance for diarrheal disease in four Haitian hospitals in three departments. At each site, we sampled up to 10 hospitalized patients each week with acute watery diarrhea. We tested 1,616 specimens collected from April 2, 2012 to March 28, 2013; 1,030 (63.7%) specimens yielded Vibrio cholerae, 13 (0.8%) specimens yielded Shigella, 6 (0.4%) specimens yielded Salmonella, and 63 (3.9%) specimens tested positive for rotavirus. Additionally, 13.5% of children < 5 years old tested positive for rotavirus. Of 1,030 V. cholerae isolates, 1,020 (99.0%) isolates were serotype Ogawa, 9 (0.9%) isolates were serotype Inaba, and 1 isolate was non-toxigenic V. cholerae O139. During 1 year of surveillance, toxigenic cholera continued to be the main cause of acute diarrhea in hospitalized patients, and rotavirus was an important cause of diarrhea-related hospitalizations in children.

Since October 2010, over 700,000 cholera cases have been reported in Haiti. We used data from laboratory-based surveillance for diarrhea in Haiti to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, and positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the cholera case definitions recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). From April 2012 to May 2013, we tested 1,878 samples from hospitalized patients with acute watery diarrhea; 1,178 (62.7%) yielded Vibrio cholerae O1. The sensitivity and specificity of the WHO case definition for cholera in an epidemic setting were 91.3% and 43.1%, respectively, and the PPV and NPV were 72.8% and 74.8%, respectively. The WHO case definition for cholera in an area where cholera is not known to be present had lower sensitivity (63.1%) and NPV (55.1%) but higher specificity (74.2%) and PPV (80.0%). When laboratory diagnostic testing is not immediately available, clinicians can evaluate signs and symptoms to more accurately identify cholera patients.

Abstract. Epidemic cholera was reported in Haiti in 2010, with no information available on the occurrence or geographic distribution of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae in Haitian waters. In a series of field visits conducted in Haiti between 2011 and 2013, water and plankton samples were collected at 19 sites. Vibrio cholerae was detected using culture, polymerase chain reaction, and direct viable count methods (DFA-DVC). Cholera toxin genes were detected by polymerase chain reaction in broth enrichments of samples collected in all visits except March 2012. Toxigenic V. cholerae was isolated from river water in 2011 and 2013. Whole genome sequencing revealed that these isolates were a match to the outbreak strain. The DFA-DVC tests were positive for V. cholerae O1 in plankton samples collected from multiple sites. Results of this survey show that toxigenic V. cholerae could be recovered from surface waters in Haiti more than 2 years after the onset of the epidemic.

We describe two new derivations of the chi-square distribution. The first derivation uses the induction method, which requires only a single integral to calculate. The second derivation uses the Laplace transform and requires minimum assumptions. The new derivations are compared with the established derivations, such as by convolution, moment generating function, and Bayesian inference. The chi-square testing has seen many applications to physics and other fields. We describe a unique version of the chi-square test where both the variance and location are tested, which is then applied to environmental data. The chi-square test is used to make a judgment whether a laboratory method is capable of detection of gross alpha and beta radioactivity in drinking water for regulatory monitoring to protect health of population. A case of a failure of the chi-square test and its amelioration are described. The chi-square test is compared to and supplemented by the t-test.