Accounting for spatial issues (spatially explicit simulation, geographical amenities and advantages of land use 10 and cover changes, etc.) to build prospective scenarios is a crucial issue for better assessment of possible impacts on the environment. Such spatialized scenarios and their implications allow societies to reduce the uncertainty of the future by exploring various strategies for land use changes. Despite the wide diversity in existing scenariobuilding techniques, two different approaches can be distinguished (exploratory vs. normative) for their methodological implications. The originality in this study comes from the use of a relevant exploratory 15 (dynamic) approach to map normative scenarios which, in most cases, are represented throughout the combination of narratives and synchronic land use and cover maps. The objective of the article is to apply this dynamic exploratory simulation approach to spatialize normative scenarios within the framework of forest management in southern Chile. In the results, two contrasting images of the future are compared, with the preservation of native forests on one hand and the spread of exotic timber plantations on the other.
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Since the s, the northern part of the Amazonian region of Ecuador has been colonized with the support of intensive oil extraction that has opened up roads and supported the settlement of people from Outside Amazonia. These dynamics have caused important forest cuttings but also regular oil leaks and spills, contaminating both soil and water. The PASHAMAMA Model seeks to simulate these dynamics on both environment and population by examining exposure and demography over time thanks to a retro-prospective and spatially explicit agent-based approach. The aim of the present paper is to describe this model, which integrates two dynamics: (a) Oil companies build roads and oil infrastructures and generate spills, inducing leaks and pipeline ruptures a ecting rivers, soils and people. This infrastructure has a probability of leaks, ruptures and other accidents that produce oil pollution a ecting rivers, soils and people. (b) New colonists settled in rural areas mostly as close as possible to roads and producing food and/or cash crops. The innovative aspect of this work is the presentation of a qualitative-quantitative approach explicitly addressed to formalize interdisciplinary modeling when data contexts are almost always incomplete.
International audienceUsually risk assessment falls within the competence of “hard sciences”through environmental and epidemiological measurements, evaluations, and modeling. Even if these approaches bring accurate assessment and evaluation of environmental processes, the perception of local inhabitants is often excluded or at least relegated to second place. Evaluation of human vulnerabilities and capacities to face such hazards requires us to understand the perceptions of the population exposed. Three case studies (Lao, Tunisia, and Ecuador) are presented where we applied a perception-based regional mapping, a mapping tool based on local perceptions, for assessing the connection between land uses and health issues. A selection of the results collected on these three study areas show that the perception of local inhabitants provides a good spatial representation of the different contaminations observed locally, with a good consistency with external data. It also indicates for a certain number of cases that the contamination extends far beyond the simulated radius and impacts peripheral areas. Beyond the analysis of such a method (methodological bias, spatial representation bias, etc.), the objective is to combine our results with epidemiological measurement
a b s t r a c tThis paper examines the suitability of the PBRM, a mapping tool based on the perceptions of local stakeholders, for assessing the connection between land uses and health issues. The area, rural Laos around Luang Phabang city, between the Mekong River valley and mountains, seems to have overcome the formal territorial organization based on exposure risks towards an organization based on access to health and medical facilities. In addition, differential access to safe drinking water has been quite solved by the implementation of private can distribution networks. However, these rapid changes accentuate the social gap between well-connected lowlands and valleys on one hand, and mountain areas on the other hand, increasingly sidelined from this transition. Methodologically, PBRM method explores broader issues at a broader scale but does not give an easy access to non-spatial criteria. Plus, the limits of the SHUs (Spatial Homogeneous Unit) the PBRM establishes are geographically precise regarding topology but not spatiality. These results are action-oriented towards local and development-oriented issues.
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