Using the historical simulations from 27 models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 27 models in phase 6 (CMIP6), the authors evaluated the differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating the climate mean of extreme temperature over China through comparison with observations during 1979-2005. The CMIP6 models reproduce well the spatial distribution of annual maxima of daily maximum temperature (TXx), annual minima of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and frost days (FD). The model spread in CMIP6 is reduced relative to CMIP5 for some temperature indices, such as TXx, warm spell duration index (WSDI), and warm days (TX90p). The multimodel median ensembles also capture the observed trend of extreme temperature. However, the CMIP6 models still have low skill in capturing TX90p and cold nights (TN10p) and have obvious cold biases or warm biases over the Tibetan Plateau. The ability of individual models varies for different indices, although some models outperform the others in terms of the average of all indices considered for different models. By comparing different version models from the same organization, the updated CMIP6 models show no significant difference from their counterparts from CMIP5 for some models. Compared with individual models, the median ensembles show better agreement with the observations for temperature indices and their means.
A record‐breaking extreme rainfall event with a maximum rainfall amount over 24 h of 524.1 mm occurred in Guangzhou, China, on May 06–07, 2017. To study the impact of land surface processes on this extreme rainfall, two 21‐member convective‐permitting ensemble forecasts over South China were performed based on two land surface models (LSMs), Noah and Community Land Model (CLM), and 21 forecasting members of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The results showed that, in general, members using the Noah LSM could better simulate urban heat islands (UHIs) and urban convection than members using the CLM LSM in this case. By investigating the ensemble member that most resembled the observations, it was found that the high temperature center in the urban area caused a thermal low in the early stage. As the southerly winds strengthened, the low‐level convergence line continued moving northward and eventually triggered convection in the mountainous region. A sensitivity experiment showed that the impact of land surface heterogeneity on precipitation could be reflected on a finer scale, and heavy rainfall was very sensitive to the changes in small‐scale land surface forces, including terrain and land use. Slight variations in small‐scale land surface conditions caused great responses in the total precipitation, indicating that for the occurrence of such quasi‐stationary extreme rainfall, a subtle balance between different atmospheric and land surface factors may be required.
Performance of six models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and their new versions in CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in representing the climatological (1976–2005) precipitation extremes over China were evaluated based on five precipitation indices. Improvements are found in CMIP6 models in simulating the climatology of all five indices, in which GFDL‐CM4 and GFDL‐ESM4 show significant improvement. Dry biases over South China (SC) are reduced in five CMIP6 models (BCC‐CSM, CanESM, GFDL‐CM, GFDL‐ESM, and IPSL‐CM), with the largest decreased root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of 59.2% in GFDL‐CM. The reduced dry biases in CMIP6 can be attributed to more moisture transported into SC from the southern boundary and dynamic processes of the atmosphere except in BCC‐CSM, where the increased evaporation dominates. Additionally, increased heavy precipitation events (>20 mm·day−1) are produced over SC in CMIP6 models. Wet biases over West China (WC) are also reduced. with the largest reduced RMSE of 46.8% in GFDL‐CM, which are related to the reduced precipitation frequency (more than 40%) and weakened precipitation intensity. In addition, the CMIP6 models show a higher skill in simulating the frequency distribution of daily precipitation intensity. More heavy precipitation over SC and Northeast China, and fewer weak precipitation (<20 mm·day−1) over WC can be reasonably reproduced. Although the CMIP6 models have obviously improved in simulating total precipitation on wet days, wet days (WD), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and extreme precipitation amount (R95T), the bias still exists in simulating consecutive dry days (CDD).
Climate models tend to overestimate light precipitation and underestimate heavy precipitation due to low model resolution. This work investigated the impact of model resolution on simulating the precipitation extremes over China during 1995–2014, based on five models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), each having low- and high-resolution versions. Six extreme indices were employed: simple daily intensity index (SDII), wet days (WD), total precipitation (PRCPTOT), extreme precipitation amount (R95p), heavy precipitation days (R20mm), and consecutive dry days (CDD). Models with high resolution demonstrated better performance in reproducing the pattern of climatological precipitation extremes over China, especially in the western Sichuan Basin along the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau (D1), South China (D2), and the Yangtze-Yellow River basins (D3). Decreased biases of precipitation exist in all high-resolution models over D1, with the largest decease in root mean square error (RMSE) being 48.4% in CNRM-CM6. The improvement could be attributed to fewer weak precipitation events (0 mm/day–10 mm/day) in high-resolution models in comparison with their counterparts with low resolutions. In addition, high-resolution models also show smaller biases over D2, which is associated with better capturing of the distribution of daily precipitation frequency and improvement of the simulation of the vertical distribution of moisture content.
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