A key legacy of the recently launched TESS mission will be to provide the astronomical community with many of the best transiting exoplanet targets for atmospheric characterization. However, time is of the essence to take full advantage of this opportunity. JWST, although delayed, will still complete its nominal five year mission on a timeline that motivates rapid identification, confirmation, and mass measurement of the top atmospheric characterization targets from TESS. Beyond JWST, future dedicated missions for atmospheric studies such as ARIEL require the discovery and confirmation of several hundred additional sub-Jovian size planets (R p < 10 R ⊕ ) orbiting bright stars, beyond those known today, to ensure a successful statistical census of exoplanet atmospheres. Ground-based ELTs will also contribute to surveying the atmospheres of the transiting planets discovered by TESS. Here we present a set of two straightforward analytic metrics, quantifying the expected signal-to-noise in transmission and thermal emission spectroscopy for a given planet, that will allow the top atmospheric characterization targets to be readily identified among the TESS planet candidates. Targets that meet our proposed threshold values for these metrics would be encouraged for rapid follow-up and confirmation via radial velocity mass measurements. Based on the catalog of simulated TESS detections by Sullivan et al. (2015), we determine appropriate cutoff values of the metrics, such that the TESS mission will ultimately yield a sample of ∼ 300 high-quality atmospheric characterization targets across a range of planet size bins, extending down to Earth-size, potentially habitable worlds.

Terrestrial planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of low-mass stars and cool dwarfs have received significant scrutiny recently Transit spectroscopy of such planets with JWST represents our best shot at obtaining the spectrum of a habitable planet within the next decade. As these planets are likely tidal-locked, improved 3D numerical simulations of such planetary atmospheres are needed to guide target selection. Here we use a 3-D climate system model, updated with new water-vapor absorption coefficients derived from the HITRAN 2012 database, to study ocean covered planets at the inner edge of the HZ around late-M to mid-K stars (2600K ≤ T ef f ≤ 4500K). Our results indicate that these updated water-vapor coefficients result in significant warming compared to previous studies, so the inner HZ around M-dwarfs is not as close as suggested by earlier work. Assuming synchronously rotating Earth-sized and Earth-massed planets with background 1 bar N 2 atmospheres, we find that planets at the inner -2 -HZ of stars with T ef f > 3000K undergo the classical "moist-greenhouse" (H 2 O mixing ratio > 10 −3 in the stratosphere) at significantly lower surface temperature (∼ 280K) in our 3-D model compared with 1-D climate models (∼ 340K). This implies that some planets around low mass stars can simultaneously undergo water-loss and remain habitable. However, for star with T ef f ≤ 3000K, planets at the inner HZ may directly transition to a runaway state, while bypassing the moist greenhouse water-loss entirely. We analyze transmission spectra of planets in a moist greenhouse regime, and find that there are several prominent H 2 O features, including a broad feature between 5-8 microns, within JWST MIRI instrument range. Thus, relying only upon standard Earth-analog spectra with 24-hour rotation period around M-dwarfs for habitability studies will miss the strong H 2 O features that one would expect to see on synchronously rotating planets around M-dwarf stars, with JWST.

As we approach the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) era, several studies have emerged that aim to: 1) characterize how the instruments will perform and 2) determine what atmospheric spectral features could theoretically be detected using transmission and emission spectroscopy. To some degree, all these studies have relied on modeling of JWST's theoretical instrument noise. With under two years left until launch, it is imperative that the exoplanet community begins to digest and integrate these studies into their observing plans, as well as think about how to leverage the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to optimize JWST observations. In order to encourage this and to allow all members of the community access to JWST & HST noise simulations, we present here an open-source Python package and online interface for creating observation simulations of all observatory-supported timeseries spectroscopy modes. This noise simulator, called PandExo, relies on some aspects of Space Telescope Science Institute's Exposure Time Calculator, Pandeia. We describe PandExo and the formalism for computing noise sources for JWST. Then, we benchmark PandExo's performance against each instrument team's independently written noise simulator for JWST, and previous observations for HST. We find that PandExo is within 10% agreement for HST/WFC3 and for all JWST instruments.

The atmospheres of late M stars represent a significant challenge in the characterization of any transiting exoplanets due to the presence of strong molecular features in the stellar atmosphere. TRAPPIST-1 is an ultra-cool dwarf, host to seven transiting planets, and contains its own molecular signatures which can potentially be imprinted on planetary transit lightcurves due to inhomogeneities in the occulted stellar photosphere. We present a case study on TRAPPIST-1g, the largest planet in the system, using a new observation together with previous data, to disentangle the atmospheric transmission of the planet from that of the star. We use the out-of-transit stellar spectra to reconstruct the stellar flux based on one-, two-, and three-temperature components. We find that TRAPPIST-1 is a 0.08 M * , 0.117 R * , M8V star with a photospheric effective temperature of 2400 K, with ∼35% 3000 K spot coverage and a very small fraction, <3%, of ∼5800 K hot spot. We calculate a planetary radius for TRAPPIST-1g to be R p = 1.124 R ⊕ with a planetary density of ρ p = 0.8214 ρ ⊕ . Based on the stellar reconstruction there are eleven plausible scenarios for the combined stellar photosphere and planet transit geometry; in our analysis we are able to rule out 8 of the 11 scenarios. Using planetary models we evaluate the remaining scenarios with respect to the transmission spectrum of TRAPPIST-1g. We conclude that the planetary transmission spectrum is likely not contaminated by any stellar spectral features, and are able to rule out a clear solar H 2 /He-dominated atmosphere at greater than 3-sigma.