Recent studies of the spinal cord and cerebellum have highlighted the importance of atrophy in the development of neurological impairment in multiple sclerosis. We have therefore developed a technique to quantify the volume of another area commonly involved pathologically in multiple sclerosis: the cerebral white matter. The technique we describe extracts the brain from the skull on four contiguous 5 mm periventricular slices using an algorithm integrated in an image analysis package, and quantifies their volume. Intra-observer scan-rescan reproducibility was 0.56%. We have applied this technique serially to 29 patients with multiple sclerosis selected for an 18-month treatment trial with a monoclonal antibody against CD4+ lymphocytes (deemed clinically ineffective). A decrease in volume beyond the 95% confidence limits for measurement variation was seen in 16 patients by the end of the 18-month period. The rate of development of atrophy was significantly higher in those who had a sustained deterioration in their Kurtzke expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score compared with those who did not (respective means: -6.4 ml year-1 and -1.8 ml year-1, P < 0.05) but in both groups these changes differed significantly from baseline (P < 0.05). Baseline T2 lesion load, change in T2 lesion load over 18 months and the volume of new gadolinium enhancing lesions on monthly scans for the first 10 months showed no correlation with the development of atrophy. This study demonstrates that progressive cerebral atrophy can be detected in individual patients with multiple sclerosis, correlates with worsening disability and gives additional information to that obtained with conventional MRI. The effect of putative therapies aimed at preventing disability could be objectively assessed by this measure.

Recent MRI studies in multiple sclerosis have highlighted the potential importance of spinal cord atrophy (implicating axonal loss) in the development of disability. However, the techniques applied in these initial studies have poor reproducibility which limits their application in the serial monitoring of patients. The aim of this study was to develop a highly reproducible and accurate method for the quantification of atrophy. The technique we describe demonstrates an intra-observer coefficient of variation (scan-rescan) of only 0.8%. When applied to 60 patients with clinically definite multiple sclerosis there was a strong correlation between spinal cord area and disability measured by Kurtzke's Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) (r = -0.7, P < 0.001). The correlation was graded providing evidence for a causal connection. At levels 3 and 8 of the EDSS we observed a reduction in average cord area of 12 and 35%, respectively. Given its reproducibility, the magnitude of the change detected and the strong correlation with disability, this new technique should prove to be a sensitive measure of progressive neurological deterioration and could be readily incorporated into imaging protocols aimed at monitoring therapy.

We investigated the relationship between local tissue destruction, diffuse cerebral atrophy and clinical progression in patients with established multiple sclerosis (MS). Twenty-nine patients with MS (13 patients with relapsing--remitting and 16 with secondary progressive disease) were included in a prospective serial study. Cerebral volumes, T1 hypointense lesion volumes, T2 hyperintense lesion volumes at baseline and at 18 months follow-up, and the volume of monthly enhancing lesions from month 0 to month 9 were assessed on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) brain scans using highly reproducible semi-automated quantitative techniques. The main outcome measures were the MRI parameters and disability on Kurtzkes' Expanded Disability Status Scale. There was a significant correlation between the change (increase) in T1 lesion volume and progressive cerebral atrophy, whereas no correlation between the T2 lesion volume and atrophy was seen over the same follow-up period. The change in T1 lesion volume correlated more strongly than did T2 lesion volume change with the change in disability. We conclude that hypointense abnormalities detected in T1-weighted brain scans and cerebral atrophy may be directly linked. Although one should bear in mind some potential for reversibility due to inflammatory, oedematous lesions, these MR measures are a useful marker of progressive tissue damage and clinical progression in established MS.

The aim of this study was to assess whether mean serum levels of inflammatory markers when measured serially correlate with disease progression or putative MRI markers of axonal loss in a cohort of well-characterised multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. Serial serum levels of soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), nitric oxide metabolites nitrate and nitrite (NOx), C-reactive protein (CRP), neopterin and tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) were measured in 29 MS patients, 13 with a relapsing remitting (RR) and 16 with a secondary progressive (SP) course, who were participating in a phase II clinical trial of anti-CD4 therapy. Short-term whole blood stimulated TNF-alpha production was also measured. Patients were studied 12 times over an 18-month period. MRI variables included the number and volume of Gd-enhancing lesions and the change in T2-hyperintense, T1-hypointense lesions and cerebral volume between the baseline and exit studies. Disease progression required a sustained change in the EDSS. There was no correlation between mean levels of inflammatory markers over the study period and disease progression or changes in any of the MRI measures. However, mean sICAM-1 levels from the first 6 months of the study were higher in patients who progressed during the study than in those that did not (443 (SD439) vs. 235 (SD162) ng/mL, p=0.05). Mean levels of NOx were significantly higher in patients with RR MS than in patients with SP disease (59.1 micromol/L (SD 12.8) vs. 48.7 micromol/L (SD 11.9), p=0.02). Patients with either a single relapse or no relapse had significantly higher NOx levels than to patients with multiple relapses during the 18 month follow-up (59.0 micromol/L (SD 12.3) vs. 47.9 micromol/L (SD 12.0), p=0.02). The mean levels of the other inflammatory markers did not correlate with disease course or relapse-rate. Serum levels of many inflammatory markers do not correlate with short-term disease progression. Some of the data suggest that the effects of inflammation on disease progression are delayed. In addition raised levels of serum nitric oxide metabolites are associated with a lower number of clinical relapses and a non-progressive disease course. These findings, although preliminary, pose interesting questions on the role of nitric oxide in the pathogenesis of MS. Inducible NO production in the early stages of the disease may be beneficial.

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