The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has adversely affected many countries in the world. The unexpected large number of COVID-19 cases has disrupted the healthcare system in many countries and resulted in a shortage of bed spaces in the hospitals. Consequently, predicting the number of COVID-19 cases is imperative for governments to take appropriate actions. The number of COVID-19 cases can be accurately predicted by considering historical data of reported cases alongside some external factors that affect the spread of the virus. In the literature, most of the existing prediction methods focus only on the historical data and overlook most of the external factors. Hence, the number of COVID-19 cases is inaccurately predicted. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to simultaneously consider historical data and the external factors. This can be accomplished by adopting data analytics, which include developing a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous input (NARX) neural network-based algorithm. The viability and superiority of the developed algorithm are demonstrated by conducting experiments using data collected for top five affected countries in each continent. The results show an improved accuracy when compared with existing methods. Moreover, the experiments are extended to make future prediction for the number of patients afflicted with COVID-19 during the period from August 2020 until September 2020. By using such predictions, both the government and people in the affected countries can take appropriate measures to resume pre-epidemic activities.
The depletion of natural resources and the degradation of the ecosystem have led many countries to adopt closed-loop supply activities in both their industrial and service sectors. With the widespread use of Internet technology, these aspects motivate the incorporation of e-commerce with the classical closed-loop supply chain. This study suggests a novel mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model that addresses the integration of e-commerce with a multi-echelon closed-loop supply chain with a multi-period planning time horizon by considering dual channels in manufacturing, and recovery facilities. To validate the model, we obtain optimal decision variables and examine the robustness and applicability of the model, and comprehensive computational experiments are performed. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is carried out to illustrate the efficacy of e-commerce integration by considering the two channels in the closed-loop supply chain. Accordingly, the total cost of the dual-channel CLSC decreases with an increase in customer demand via online retailers, the returned end of life (EOL) products, recycling ratio, and recovery ratio. Some useful managerial implications are provided based on the conducted analysis.
In this study, we propose a robust bi-objective optimization model of the green closed-loop supply chain network considering presorting, a heterogeneous transportation system, and carbon emissions. The proposed model is an uncertain bi-objective mixed-integer linear optimization model that maximizes profit and minimizes carbon emissions by considering uncertain costs, selling price, and carbon emissions. The robust optimization approach is implemented using the combined interval and polyhedral, “Interval+ Polyhedral,” uncertainty set to develop the robust counterpart of the proposed model. Robust Pareto optimal solutions are obtained using a lexicographic weighted Tchebycheff optimization approach of the bi-objective model. Intensive computational experiments are conducted and a robust Pareto optimal front is obtained with a probability guarantee that the constraints containing uncertain parameters are not violated (constraint satisfaction).
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