In the face of rising defaults and limited studies on the prediction of financial distress in Morocco, this article aims to determine the most relevant predictors of financial distress and identify its optimal prediction models in a normal Moroccan economic context over two years. To achieve these objectives, logistic regression and neural networks are used based on financial ratios selected by lasso and stepwise techniques. Our empirical results highlight the significant role of predictors, namely interest to sales and return on assets in predicting financial distress. The results show that logistic regression models obtained by stepwise selection outperform the other models with an overall accuracy of 93.33% two years before financial distress and 95.00% one year prior to financial distress. Results also show that our models classify distressed SMEs better than healthy SMEs with type I errors lower than type II errors.

This paper aims to identify the determinants and predictors of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ financial failure. Within this framework, we have opted for a quantitative method based on a sample of healthy and failing SMEs of a Moroccan bank. The main results of the different optimal models are obtained by the stepwise method of estimating logistic regression. These results show, in a normal economic context, that the variables that discriminate between healthy and failing SMEs are the main predictors of financial failure. Autonomy ratio, interest to sales, asset turnover, days in accounts receivable, and duration of trade payables are the variables that increase the probability of financial failure, while repayment capacity and return on assets reduce the probability of failure. These variables present an overall classification rate of healthy and failing SMEs of 91.11% three years before failure and of 84.44% two years and one year before failure.

Innovation, in all its forms, has become a central activity in companies. Moreover, innovation is considered as the engine of growth in several countries. The main objective of this paper is to study the determinants of innovation (product and process) in firms in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region via concentrating on the impact of financial and non-financial obstacles. The empirical study refers to row data collected by the World Bank’s Survey of Enterprises (WBES) between 2013 and 2020 in 10 MENA countries. The empirical results of the probit model estimation show that international quality certification, women’s participation in ownership, and investment in research and development (R&D) have a positive impact on all types of innovation. Nevertheless, small firms, sole proprietorships, and firms managed by women are found to be less innovative. The problem of endogeneity between innovation and financial obstacles is controlled thanks to the use of the instrumental regression method (IV-probit). The results confirm that the variable measuring the financial obstacles is endogenous, and it impacts all types of innovation negatively. The results of the IV-probit regression show that the non-financial obstacles related to the business environment which negatively affect innovation are: business licensing and permits, corruption, access to electricity, labor regulations, political instability, and the practices of competitors in the informal sector.

The absence of prior research in Morocco using the macroeconomic explanatory approach to bankruptcy, combined with the new peak in business failure in Morocco in 2021, motivates the need to explore the influence of macroeconomic indicators on the Moroccan bankruptcy rate. Therefore, the objective of this article is to examine the impact of these indicators on the Moroccan bankruptcy rate using multiple regression models over the period 2010-2021. The obtained results show that new firm creation and the interest rate positively and significantly affect the bankruptcy rate, while Euro and Dollar exchange rates have negative and significant effects on the dependent variable. The results suggest guidelines for policymakers and practitioners to refine the economic conditions in order to achieve a low bankruptcy rate in Morocco.

As a semi-arid/arid country located in the northwest of Africa, Morocco is facing serious water scarcity driven by the dual stresses of decreasing availability of water resources and increasing water demands. Virtual water trade could be an effective tool to alleviate water scarcity. The paper presents an analysis of the relationships between agrarian productions, foreign trade, and the water sector in Morocco by deriving a comprehensive estimate of virtual water export and import in Morocco’s foreign trade of 40 crop products during the period from 2000 to 2017. Our objectives include determining the intensity of water consumption of exported and imported crop products and quantifying the water consumed and saved, respectively, by locally producing and importing these products. To this end, FAO’s Penman-Monteith climate model was used to estimate crop water requirements based on data on meteorological factors. The results show that Morocco was a net virtual water importer during the study period. The deficit was 595.74 Gm3. The tendency of total virtual water export was on a rising trend, while the total virtual water import was on a downward trend. The main exported virtual water was from vegetables (68.87 Gm3, 72.47%) and the main imported virtual water was from cereals (679.68 Gm3, 98.4%). Regarding crop product’s water intensity, we found that the exported crop products were excessively concentrated on water-intensive products such as mandarins and clementines, figs, oranges, apricots, plums, citrus fruits, olives, tomatoes, asparagus, peas, and artichokes. On the other hand, the agricultural policy of 2009–2020 increased the production of water-intensive products. This finding seems to be going against the virtual water trade theory, which states that water-poor countries should import water-intensive products and produce local products with lower water requirements.