Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.

Avian malaria is a worldwide mosquito-borne disease caused by Plasmodium parasites. These parasites occur in many avian species but primarily affect passerine birds that have not evolved with the parasite. Host pathogenicity, fitness, and population impacts are poorly understood. In contrast to continental species, introduced avian malaria poses a substantial threat to naive birds on Hawaii, the Galapagos, and other archipelagoes. In Hawaii, transmission is maintained by susceptible native birds, competence and abundance of mosquitoes, and a disease reservoir of chronically infected native birds. Although vector habitat and avian communities determine the geographic distribution of disease, climate drives transmission patterns ranging from continuous high infection in warm lowland forests, seasonal infection in midelevation forests, and disease-free refugia in cool high-elevation forests. Global warming is expected to increase the occurrence, distribution, and intensity of avian malaria across this elevational gradient and threaten high-elevation refugia, which is the key to survival of many susceptible Hawaiian birds. Increased temperatures may have already increased global avian malaria prevalence and contributed to an emergence of disease in New Zealand.

No abstract