Recidivism risk assessment tools have been utilized for decades. Although their implementation and use have the potential to touch nearly every aspect of the correctional system, the creation and examination of optimal development methods have been restricted to a small group of instrument developers. Furthermore, the methodological variation among common instruments used nationally is substantial. The current study examines this variation by reviewing methodologies used to develop several existing assessments and then tests a variety of design variations in an attempt to isolate and select those which provide improved content and predictive performance using a large sample (N = 44,010) of reentering offenders in Washington State. Study efforts were completed in an attempt to isolate and identify potential incremental performance achievements. Findings identify a methodology for improved prediction model performance and, in turn, describe the development and introduction of the Washington State Department of Correction’s recidivism prediction instrument—the Static Risk Offender Need Guide for Recidivism (STRONG-R).
The development of risk–needs assessments has substantially expanded assessment content, which is reflected in the now regular use of both static and dynamic items. However, while the risk–need–responsivity model differentiates between risks and needs theoretically, the scoring of risks and needs does not make for a clear demarcation. We argue that an assessment of an offender’s needs should be scored separately and solely on items that are changeable and predict recidivism. This article describes the conceptualization and development of Washington State’s offender needs assessment. Designed to complement an offender’s assessment of risk, we make use of key design elements to avoid many theoretical and methodological caveats. Using preexisting item selection, weighting, and validation methods, we present domain-based needs models that maximize item content and provide substantial performance in the prediction of recidivism.
Disciplinary segregation (DS) is practiced in a variety of correctional settings and a growing body of research explores its subsequent effects among offenders. The present study contributes to this literature by analyzing the impact of short-term DS on violent infractions and community recidivism among a sample of inmates in Washington State. We assessed the impact of DS on these outcomes from deterrence and stain theory perspectives while controlling for social support variables such as visitations and correctional programming. Mentally ill offenders were excluded, as their abilities to make rational choices may be inconsistent with deterrence theory. Results show DS does not significantly affect post-DS infractions. Social supports significantly reduced inmates’ odds of violent infractions while incarcerated. Community models indicate no substantive differences between the DS and non-DS groups on post-prison convictions 3 years after release. Overall, DS exhibited limited effects on offenders’ institutional or community outcomes.
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