Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two-year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors in both types of change. Whereas regime type is typically measured using linear or binary indicators of democracy/autocracy derived from the 21-point Polity scale, the model uses a nonlinear five-category measure of regime type based on the Polity components. This new measure of regime type emerges as the most powerful predictor of instability onsets, leading us to conclude that political institutions, properly specified, and not economic conditions, demography, or geography, are the most important predictors of the onset of political instability.

BackgroundAdults aged 65 and older are disproportionately affected by hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes, which are established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Although risk reduction strategies among older adults, including control of CVD risk factors, can lead to a decline in premature CVD morbidity and mortality, the prevalence of these risk factors has generally increased in the past decade among elders and risk factor control rates have been suboptimal. We assess prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control rates among U.S. adults aged 65 and older with respect to hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes and describe predictors associated with awareness and management of these factors.MethodsAnalysis of nationally representative data collected from adults aged 65 and older (n = 3,810) participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2004.ResultsWomen have a significantly higher prevalence of hypertension than men (76.6% vs 63.0%) and a significantly lower rate of control when treated pharmacologically (42.9% vs 57.9%). Dyslipidemia prevalence is 60.3% overall, and women are significantly more likely to be aware of their condition than men (71.1% vs 59.1%). Diabetes affects 21.2% of older adults, and 50.9% of prevalent cases are treated pharmacologically. Goal attainment among those treated is problematic for all three conditions—hypertension (48.8%), dyslipidemia (64.9%), and diabetes (50.4%). Having two or more doctor visits annually is associated with goal attainment for dyslipidemia.ConclusionsKnowledge of cardiovascular health in older adults and understanding gender gaps in awareness can help physicians and policymakers improve disease management and patient education programs.

No abstract

There has been an alarming increase in ED visits for magnet ingestion in children. Increased public education and prevention efforts are needed.