SummaryBackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.InterpretationSince 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.FundingWellcome Trust.

What aspects of body fat are particularly hazardous and how do we measure them?

OBJECTIVE: Fat distribution as measured by waist-to-hip ratio has been shown to be an important independent predictor of glucose intolerance. Few studies, however, have considered the contributions of the waist and hip circumferences independently. The aim of this study was to investigate the independent associations of waist and hip circumference with diabetes in a large population-based study, and to investigate whether they also apply to other major components of the metabolic syndrome (hypertension and dyslipidemia). In addition, as previous studies were performed in older persons, we investigated whether these associations were present across adult age groups. METHODS: Weight, height, waist and hip circumferences were measured in 11 247 participants of the nationally representative Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study. HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting and 2-h postload glucose were determined, and diastolic and systolic blood pressure was measured. After exclusion of persons already known to have diabetes, hypertension or dyslipidemia, logistic and linear regression were used to study cross-sectional associations of anthropometric variables with newly diagnosed diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidemia, and with continuous metabolic measures, all separately for men (n ¼ 3818) and women (n ¼ 4582). Analyses were repeated in the same population stratified for age. RESULTS: After adjustment for age, body mass index and waist, a larger hip circumference was associated with a lower prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes (odds ratio (OR) per one s.d. increase in hip circumference 0.55 (95% CI 0.41-0.73) in men and 0.42 (0.27-0.65) in women) and undiagnosed dyslipidemia (OR 0.58 (0.50-0.67) in men and 0.37 (0.30-0.45) in women). Associations with undiagnosed hypertension were weaker (OR 0.80 (0.69-0.93) in men and 0.88 (0.70-1.11) in women). As expected, larger waist circumference was associated with higher prevalence of these conditions. Similar associations were found using continuous metabolic variables as outcomes in linear regression analyses. Height partly explained the negative associations with hip circumference. When these analyses were performed stratified for age, associations became weaker or disappeared in the oldest age groups (age Z75 y in particular), except for HDL-cholesterol. CONCLUSION: We found independent and opposite associations of waist and hip circumference with diabetes, dyslipidemia and less strongly with hypertension in a large population-based survey. These results emphasize that waist and hip circumference are important predictors for the metabolic syndrome and should both be considered in epidemiological studies. The associations were consistent in all age groups, except in age Z75 y. Further research should be aimed at verifying hypotheses explaining the 'protective' effect of larger hips.

INTRODUCTION:Effective methods for assessing visceral fat are important to investigate the role of visceral fat for the increased health risks in obesity. Techniques for direct measurement of soft tissue composition such as CT or MRI are expensive, timeconsuming or require a relatively high radiation dose. Simple anthropometric methods, such as waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference or sagittal diameter are widely used. However, these methods cannot differentiate between visceral and subcutaneous fat and are less accurate. The aim of the present study is to investigate whether the dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) method, possibly combined with anthropometry, offers a good alternative to CT for the prediction of visceral fat in the elderly. METHODS: Subjects were participants in the Health ABC-study, a cohort study of black and white men and women aged 70 -79, investigating the effect of weight-related health conditions on disablement. Total body fat and trunk fat were measured by DXA using a Hologic QDR 1500. A 10 mm CT scan at the L4 -L5 level was acquired to measure visceral fat and total abdominal fat. Weight, height, sagittal diameter and waist circumference were measured using standard methods. Fat in a manually defined DXA subregion (4 cm slice at the top of iliac crest) at the abdomen was calculated in a sub-group of participants (n ¼ 150; 50% male; 45.3% Afro-American=54.7% Caucasian, age 70 -79 y). This subregion, the standard trunk region and total fat were used as indicators of visceral fat. RESULTS: Total abdominal fat by DXA (subregion) was strongly correlated with total abdominal fat by CT (r ranging from 0.87 in white men to 0.98 in black women). The DXA subregion underestimated total abdominal fat by 10% compared to the CT slice. The underestimation by DXA was seen especially in people with less abdominal fat. The association of visceral fat by CT with the DXA subregion (r ¼ 0.66, 0.78, 0.79 and 0.65 for white and black men and women, respectively) was comparable with the association of the CT measure with the sagittal diameter (r ¼ 0.74, 0.70, 0.84 and 0.68). Combining DXA measurements with anthropometry gave only limited improvement for the prediction of visceral fat by CT compared to univariate models (maximal increase of r 2 4%). CONCLUSION: DXA is a good alternative to CT for predicting total abdominal fat in an elderly population. For the prediction of visceral fat the sagittal diameter, which has a practical advantage compared to DXA, is just as effective.