Background WHO has launched an initiative aiming to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. Elimination is a long-term target that needs long-lasting commitment. To support local authorities in implementing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, we provide regional and country-specific estimates of cervical cancer burden and the projected impact of HPV vaccination among today's young girls who could develop cervical cancer if not vaccinated.Methods The expected number of cervical cancer cases in the absence of vaccination among girls born between 2005 and 2014 was quantified by combining age-specific incidence rates from GLOBOCAN 2018 and cohort-specific mortality rates by age from UN demographic projections. Preventable cancers were estimated on the basis of HPV prevalence reduction attributable to vaccination and the relative contribution of each HPV type to cervical cancer incidence. We assessed the number of cervical cancer cases preventable through vaccines targeting HPV types 16 and 18, with and without cross-protection, and through vaccines targeting HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Findings Globally, without vaccination, the burden of cervical cancer in these birth cohorts is expected to reach 11•6 million (95% uncertainty interval11•4-12•0) cases by 2094. Approximately 75% of the burden will be concentrated in 25 countries mostly located in Africa and Asia, where the future number of cases is expected to increase manyfold, reaching 5•6 million (5•4-6•0) cases in Africa and 4•5 million (4•4-4•6) cases in Asia. Worldwide immunisation with an HPV vaccine targeted to HPV types 16 and 18, with cross-protection against HPV types 31, 33, and 45, could prevent about 8•7 million (8•5-9•0) cases. Interpretation Detailed estimates of the increasing burden of cervical cancer and projected impact of HPV vaccination is of immediate relevance to public health decision makers. Shifting the focus of projections towards recently born girls who could develop cervical cancer if not vaccinated is fundamental to overcome stakeholders' hesitancy towards HPV vaccination. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Canadian Institutes of Health Research.
It is well known that thyroid dysfunction increases with age. This study is aimed to determine reference intervals, in males and females, suitable for thyroid disease exploration during adult life using routinely collected serum thyrotropin (TSH) data in a tertiary center from 2007 to 2018. Over 11 years, 295,775 TSH levels were measured in a single lab. Among the 156,025 TSH results available for analysis, 90,538 values were from female subjects, 82,019 were from patients aged >60 years and 26,825 were from patients aged >80 years. By using an indirect approach, we determined reference values of TSH adapted to age and sex, and we then evaluated the proportion of patients who would have been reclassified with these reference values. The median TSH ranged from 1.2-1.4 mUI/L during the study period. The upper limit of reference range of TSH increased with age; in females the median to 97.5th percentile values increased continuously from the age of 30 years to the oldest age group. Using new calculated reference values in patients with TSH above the conventional upper-limit reference value (4 mUI/L), the proportion of results reclassified as within the reference interval among patients aged >60 years ranged, according to age group, from 50.5% to 65.1% of females and from 33.0% to 37.7% of males. The use of TSH age-specific and sex-specific upper-limit reference values led to the reclassification of a great number of samples, notably among women. This suggests that age-specific TSH upper-limit reference intervals in daily practice should be used in order to avoid misclassification.
Population–based cancer registries (PBCR) are vital to the assessment of the cancer burden and in monitoring and evaluating national progress in cervical cancer surveillance and control. Yet the level of their development in countries exhibiting the highest cervical cancer incidence rates is suboptimal, and requires considerable investment if they are to document the impact of WHO global initiative to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. As a starting point we propose a comprehensive cancer surveillance framework, positioning PBCR in relation to other health information systems that are required across the cancer control continuum. The key concepts of PBCR are revisited and their role in providing a situation analysis of the scale and profile of the cancer-specific incidence and survival, and their evolution over time is illustrated with specific examples. Linking cervical cancer data to screening and immunization information systems enables the development of a comprehensive set of measures capable of assessing the short- and long-term achievements and impact of the initiative. Such data form the basis of national and global estimates of the cancer burden and permit comparisons across countries, facilitating decision-making or triggering cancer control action. The initiation and sustainable development of PBCR must be an early step in the scale-up of cervical cancer control activities as a means to ensure progress is successfully monitored and appraised.
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