The Gulf of Maine, a semi-enclosed basin on the continental shelf of the northwest Atlantic Ocean, is fed by surface and deep water flows from outside the Gulf: Scotian Shelf Water from the Nova Scotian shelf that enters the Gulf at the surface, and Slope Water that enters at depth and along the bottom through the Northeast Channel. There are two types of Slope Water, Labrador Slope Water (LSW) and Warm Slope Water (WSW); it is these deep water masses that are the major source of dissolved inorganic nutrients to the Gulf. It has been known for some time that the volume inflow of Slope Waters of either type that enters the Gulf of Maine is variable, that it co-varies with the magnitude of inflowing Scotian Shelf Water, and that periods of greater inflows of Scotian Shelf Water have become more frequent in recent years, accompanied by reduced Slope Water inflows. We present here analyses of a ten-year record of data collected by moored sensors in Jordan Basin, in the interior Gulf of Maine, and in the Northeast Channel, along with recent and historical hydrographic and nutrient data, that help reveal the nature of Scotian Shelf Water and Slope Water inflows. Proportional inflows of nutrient-rich Slope Waters and nutrient-poor Scotian Shelf Waters alternate episodically with one another on time scales of months to several years, creating a variable nutrient field upon which the biological productivities of the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank depend. Unlike decades past, the inflows of Slope Waters of either type do not appear to be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, which had been shown earlier to influence the relative proportions of the two Slope Waters, WSW and LSW, that enter the Gulf. We suggest that of greater importance in recent years are more frequent, episodic influxes of colder, fresher, less dense, and low-nutrient Scotian Shelf Water into the Gulf of Maine, and concomitant reductions in the inflow of deep, nutrient-rich Slope Waters. We also discuss evidence of modified Gulf Stream ring water that penetrated to Jordan Basin in summer of 2013.

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For the period 2005–2009, the abundance of resting cysts in bottom sediments from the preceding fall was a first-order predictor of the overall severity of spring-summer blooms of Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine and southern New England. Cyst abundance off mid-coast Maine was significantly higher in fall 2009 than it was preceding a major regional bloom in 2005. A seasonal ensemble forecast was computed using a range of forcing conditions for the period 2004–2009, suggesting that a large bloom was likely in the western Gulf of Maine in 2010. This did not materialize, perhaps because environmental conditions in spring-summer 2010 were not favorable for growth of A.fundyense. Water mass anomalies indicate a regional-scale change in circulation with direct influence on A. fundyense’s niche. Specifically, near-surface waters were warmer, fresher, more stratified, and had lower nutrients than during the period of observations used to construct the ensemble forecast. Moreover, a weaker-than-normal coastal current lessened A. fundyense transport into the western Gulf of Maine and Massachusetts Bay. Satellite ocean color observations indicate the 2010 spring phytoplankton bloom was more intense than usual. Early-season nutrient depletion may have caused a temporal mismatch with A. fundyense’s endogenous clock that regulates the timing of cyst germination. These findings highlight the difficulties of ecological forecasting in a changing oceanographic environment, and underscore the need for a sustained observational network to drive such forecasts.

We report here the results of ten oceanographic survey cruises carried out in the Gulf of Maine - Georges Bank region of the Northwest Atlantic during the late spring to summer period in 2007, 2008 and 2010, for which we examine and characterize relationships among dissolved inorganic nutrient fields, water mass dynamics and cell densities of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense. Nutrients are supplied to continental shelf waters of the Gulf of Maine - Georges Bank region by inflows of deep offshore water masses; once in the Gulf they are transported with the residual circulation and mix with surface waters, both in the Gulf and on the Bank. Those fluxes of offshore water masses and their nutrient loads are the major source of nutrients for phytoplankton production in the region, including annual blooms of A. fundyense in the Gulf and on Georges Bank. This much is already known. We suggest here that the locations and magnitude of A. fundyense blooms are controlled in part by variable nutrient fluxes to the interior Gulf of Maine from offshore, and, those interior Gulf of Maine waters are, in turn, the main nutrient source to Georges Bank, which are brought onto the Bank by tidal pumping on the Northern Flank. We present evidence that nitrate is the initial form of nitrogenous nutrient for A. fundyense blooms, but it is quickly depleted to limiting concentrations of less than 0.5 μM, at which time continued growth and maintenance of the population is likely fueled by recycled ammonium. We also show that phosphate may be the limiting nutrient over much of Georges Bank in summer, allowing recycled ammonium concentrations to increase. Our temperature-salinity analyses reveal spatial and temporal (seasonal and interannual) variability in the relative proportions of two deep source waters that enter the Gulf of Maine at depth through the Northeast Channel: Warm Slope Water (WSW) and Labrador Slope Water (LSW). Those two source waters are known to vary in their nutrient loads, with nitrate concentrations about 50% higher in WSW than LSW, for example, and as such the proportions of these two water masses to one another are important determinants of the overall nutrient loads in the interior Gulf. In addition to these deep slope water fluxes, we show evidence here of episodic fluxes of relatively fresh and low-nutrient shelf waters from the Nova Scotian Shelf, which enter the Gulf in pulses at depths between the surface and approximately 150 m, displacing deep slope waters, and consequently they significantly dilute the Gulf's interior waters, reducing nutrient concentrations and, in turn, affect the magnitude of A. fundyense blooms.

A series of oceanographic surveys on Georges Bank document variability of populations of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense on time scales ranging from synoptic to seasonal to interannual. Blooms of A. fundyense on Georges Bank can reach concentrations on the order of 104 cells l−1, and are generally bank-wide in extent. Georges Bank populations of A. fundyense appear to be quasi-independent of those in the adjacent coastal Gulf of Maine, insofar as they occupy a hydrographic niche that is colder and saltier than their coastal counterparts. In contrast to coastal populations that rely on abundant resting cysts for bloom initiation, very few cysts are present in the sediments on Georges Bank. Bloom dynamics must therefore be largely controlled by the balance between growth and mortality processes, which are at present largely unknown for this population. Based on correlations between cell abundance and nutrient distributions, ammonium appears to be an important source of nitrogen for A. fundyense blooms on Georges Bank.