Background & Aims Celiac disease is detected using serology and endoscopy analyses. We used multiple statistical analyses of a geographically isolated population in the United States to determine whether a single serum screening can identify individuals with celiac disease. Methods We performed a retrospective study of 3555 pediatric patients (18 years old or younger) in the intermountain West region of the United States from January 1, 2008 through September 30, 2013. All patients had undergone serologic analyses for celiac disease, including measurement of antibodies to tissue transglutaminase (TTG) and/or deamidated gliadin peptide (DGP), and had duodenal biopsies collected within the following year. Modified Marsh criteria were used to identify patients with celiac disease. We developed models to identify patients with celiac disease using logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Results Single use of a test for serum level of immunoglobulin A (IgA) against TTG identified patients with celiac disease with 90% sensitivity, 90% specificity, a 61% positive-predictive value (PPV), a 90% negative-predictive value, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.91; these values were higher than those obtained from assays for IgA against DGP or IgG against TTG plus DGP. Not including the test for DGP antibody caused only 0.18% of celiac disease cases to be missed. Level of TTG IgA 7-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN) identified patients with celiac disease with a 96% PPV and 100% specificity. Using CART analysis, we found a level of TTG IgA 3.2-fold the ULN and above to most accurately identify patients with celiac disease (PPV of 89%). Multivariable CART analysis showed that a level of TTG IgA 2.5-fold the ULN and above was sufficient to identify celiac disease in patients with type 1 diabetes (PPV of 88%). Serum level of IgA against TTG in patients with vs those without trisomy 21 did not affect diagnosis predictability in CART analysis. Conclusion In a population-based study, we found that serum level of IgA against TTG can identify patients with celiac disease with PPVs of about 90%. Predictive values increase greatly when levels are markedly above the ULN or when the assay is used in combination with other variables. Measurement of IgG against TTG or DGP does not increase the accuracy of detection of celiac disease based against TTG IgA levels. There is a low risk of false-positive results from serologic analysis in patients with type I diabetes or persistent increases in antibody against TTG on repeat testing.
Objectives We evaluated the association between the emergency department (ED) triage chief complaint and rate of missed appendicitis in children. Methods We performed a retrospective chart review of patients who presented to a pediatric ED and were diagnosed with appendicitis over 5 years (July 1, 2009 to June 30, 2014). We reviewed the medical record for any additional ED visits in the 7 days preceding the diagnosis of appendicitis. Triage chief complaints were classified as “suggestive of appendicitis” (abdominal pain, right lower quadrant pain, or rule out appendicitis) or “nonspecific” (fever, vomiting, dehydration, etc). We evaluated the association between triage chief complaint and missed diagnosis of appendicitis. Results We reviewed 1680 patients with appendicitis. In 67 (4%) cases, patients had at least 1 additional ED visit during the week preceding the diagnosis of appendicitis. When comparing those diagnosed with appendicitis at their initial ED visit to those diagnosed after multiple visits, we found no difference in age (9.9 vs 10.1 years, P = 0.665), sex (55.7% vs 49.3% male, P = 0.291), white blood cell count (14.4 vs 12.3 × 103/L, P = 0.115), or presence of fever (19.9% vs 19.4%, P = 0.920). Of patients with a triage chief complaint that was suggestive of appendicitis, 3.8% were missed on their initial ED visit versus 8.8% of those with a nonspecific triage chief complaint (odds ratio, 2.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.1–5.6). Conclusions A triage chief complaint less suggestive of appendicitis was associated with a higher rate of missed appendicitis in a pediatric ED. Our findings further confirm the potential impact of anchoring bias by a triage chief complaint when attempting to diagnose appendicitis.
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