Detection of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) after resection of stage II colon cancer may identify patients at the highest risk of recurrence and help inform adjuvant treatment decisions. We used massively parallel sequencing–based assays to evaluate the ability of ctDNA to detect minimal residual disease in 1046 plasma samples from a prospective cohort of 230 patients with resected stage II colon cancer. In patients not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy, ctDNA was detected postoperatively in 14 of 178 (7.9%) patients, 11 (79%) of whom had recurred at a median follow-up of 27 months; recurrence occurred in only 16 (9.8 %) of 164 patients with negative ctDNA [hazard ratio (HR), 18; 95% confidence interval (CI), 7.9 to 40; P < 0.001]. In patients treated with chemotherapy, the presence of ctDNA after completion of chemotherapy was also associated with an inferior recurrence-free survival (HR, 11; 95% CI, 1.8 to 68; P = 0.001). ctDNA detection after stage II colon cancer resection provides direct evidence of residual disease and identifies patients at very high risk of recurrence.

ctDNA is detectable in a high proportion of treatment naïve mCRC patients. Early changes in ctDNA during first-line chemotherapy predict the later radiologic response.

Background Comprehensive national joint replacement registries with well-validated data offer unique opportunities for examining the potential future burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) at a population level. This study aimed to forecast the burden of primary total knee (TKR) and hip replacements (THR) performed for OA in Australia to the year 2030, and to model the impact of contrasting obesity scenarios on TKR burden. Methods De-identified TKR and THR data for 2003–2013 were obtained from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Population projections and obesity trends were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with public and private hospital costs sourced from the National Hospital Cost Data Collection. Procedure rates were projected according to two scenarios: (1) constant rate of surgery from 2013 onwards; and (2) continued growth in surgery rates based on 2003–2013 growth. Sensitivity analyses were used to estimate future TKR burden if: (1) obesity rates continued to increase linearly; or (2) 1–5% of the overweight or obese population attained a normal body mass index. Results Based on recent growth, the incidence of TKR and THR for OA is estimated to rise by 276% and 208%, respectively, by 2030. The total cost to the healthcare system would be $AUD5.32 billion, of which $AUD3.54 billion relates to the private sector. Projected growth in obesity rates would result in 24,707 additional TKRs totalling $AUD521 million. A population-level reduction in obesity could result in up to 8062 fewer procedures and cost savings of up to $AUD170 million. Conclusions If surgery trends for OA continue, Australia faces an unsustainable joint replacement burden by 2030, with significant healthcare budget and health workforce implications. Strategies to reduce national obesity could produce important TKR savings. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12891-019-2411-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Antimicrobial de-escalation (ADE) is a strategy to reduce the spectrum of antimicrobials and aims to prevent the emergence of bacterial resistance. We present a systematic review describing the definitions, determinants and outcomes associated with ADE. We included 2 randomized controlled trials and 12 cohort studies. There was considerable variability in the definition of ADE. It was more frequently performed in patients with broad-spectrum and/or appropriate antimicrobial therapy (P= .05 to .002), when more agents were used (P= .002), and in the absence of multidrug-resistant pathogens (P< .05). Where investigated, lower or improving severity scores were consistently associated with ADE (P= .04 to <.001). The pooled effect of ADE on mortality is protective (relative risk, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, .52-.88). Because the determinants of ADE are markers of clinical improvement and/or of lower risk of treatment failure this effect on mortality cannot be retained as evidence. None of the studies were designed to investigate the effect of ADE on antimicrobial resistance.

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Using the conventional fluoroscopic criteria, only a minority of RV leads were implanted on the true RV septum. Instead, aiming for the middle of the cardiac silhouette in the RAO fluoroscopic view, confirming rightward orientation in the LAO view, and having a paced QRS duration <140 ms may allow the implanting cardiologist a simple, more accurate method to achieve true RV septal lead positioning.

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BackgroundResuscitated cardiac arrest is associated with high mortality; however, the ability to estimate risk of adverse outcomes using existing illness severity scores is limited. Using in-hospital data available within the first 24 hours of admission, we aimed to develop more accurate models of risk prediction using both logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) techniques, with a combination of demographic, physiologic, and biochemical information. Methods and findingsPatient-level data were extracted from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Adult Patient Database for patients who had experienced a cardiac arrest within 24 hours prior to admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) during the period January 2006 to December 2016. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The models were trained and tested on a dataset (split 90:10) including age, lowest and highest physiologic variables during the first 24 hours, and key past medical history. LR and 5 ML approaches (gradient boosting machine [GBM], support vector classifier [SVC], random forest [RF], artificial neural network [ANN], and an ensemble) were compared to the APACHE III and Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death (ANZROD) predictions. In all, 39,566 patients from 186 ICUs were analysed. Mean (±SD) age was 61 ± 17 years; 65% were male. Overall inhospital mortality was 45.5%. Models were evaluated in the test set. The APACHE III and PLOS Medicine | https://doi.