Objectives The aims of this study were to determine the outcome and predictors of renal disease progression in Puerto Ricans with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) initially presenting mild renal involvement. Methods A retrospective cohort of 61 SLE patients (per American College of Rheumatology classification) with mild renal involvement was studied. Mild renal disease was defined as glomerular filtration rate (GFR) ≥ 90 ml/min in the presence of proteinuria (> 0.25g/day, but < 3.5 g/day), hematuria, and/or urinary cellular casts. Demographic parameters, clinical manifestations, serologic markers, comorbidities, pharmacologic treatments, disease activity and damage accrual were determined at onset of renal disease. Factors associated with renal disease progression were evaluated using recurrent event survival analysis. Results Of 61 patients, 55(90.2%) were women. The mean [standard deviation (SD)] age at renal onset was 29(11.2) and the mean (SD) follow-up period was 5.1(3.4) years. Thirty-eight patients had a decline in GFR: Thirty-two had a mild decline (GFR = 60–89 ml/min), five developed moderate to severe renal insufficiency (GFR = 15–59 ml/min), and one evolved to end-stage renal disease (GFR< 15 ml/min). In the Cox model, low C4 levels and proteinuria > 0.5g/day were associated with an earlier decline in GFR. Conclusions The majority of SLE Puerto Rican patients initially presenting with mild renal involvement had a decrease in GFR after an average of five years of kidney disease, although most had a mild dysfunction. Low C4 levels and proteinuria were predictors of an earlier decline in GFR. The awareness of these factors may contribute to early identification of individuals at risk of renal deterioration.
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