The evolution of kidney allograft survival remains insufficiently studied in the context of the changing donor and recipient demographics. Since European data are lacking we performed a cohort study (1986-2015) that, based on the Collaborative Transplant Study, included 108 787 recipients of brain-death kidney donors in 135 hospitals across 21 European countries. We analyzed the hazard rate of kidney failure after transplantation. Between 1986 and 1999, improvement in graft survival was more pronounced in the short term than in the long term: one-, five- and ten-year hazard rates after transplantation declined 64% (95% confidence interval, 61%-66%), 53% (49%-57%) and 45% (39%-50%), respectively. Between 2000 and 2015, hazard rates at one, five and ten years post-transplant declined respectively 22% (12-30%), 47% (36-56%) and 64% (45-76%). Improvement in graft survival in the first five years post-transplant was significantly less since 2000, while improvement after five years was comparable to before. During the 2000-2015 period improvement of graft survival was greater in the long than in the short term. These changes were independent of changing donor and recipient characteristics, and reflect the evolution in global kidney transplant management over the past decades. Unfortunately, after accounting for the evolution of donor and recipient characteristics, we found that short-term improvement in graft survival decreased since 2000, while long-term improvement remained unchanged in Europe. Thus, deceleration of short-term graft survival improvement in more recent years illustrates an unmet need for innovation.

In this cohort study (n = 935 transplantations), we investigated the phenotype and risk of graft failure in patients with histological criteria for antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) in the absence of circulating donor-specific anti-human leukocyte antigen (HLA) antibodies (DSA), and compared this to patients with definite ABMR and HLA-DSA-positivity. The histological picture did not differ between HLA-DSA-positive (n = 85) and HLA-DSA-negative (n = 123) cases of ABMR histology, apart from increased complement split product 4d (C4d) deposition in the peritubular capillaries in HLA-DSA-positive cases. Histology of ABMR without HLA-DSA was more transient than DSA-positive ABMR, and patients with ABMR histology without HLA-DSA had graft survival superior to that of HLA-DSA-positive patients, independent of concomitant T cell-mediated rejection (38.2%) or borderline changes (17.9%). Multivariate analysis showed that the risk of graft failure was not higher in patients with histological picture of ABMR (ABMR ) in the absence of HLA-DSA, compared to patients without ABMR . Despite an association between C4d deposition and HLA-DSA-positivity, using C4d deposition as alternative for the DSA criterion in the diagnosis of ABMR, as proposed in Banff 2017, did not contribute to the prognosis of graft function and graft failure. We concluded that biopsies with ABMR but without detectable HLA-DSA represent a distinct, often transient phenotype with superior allograft survival.

BackgroundIn kidney transplantation, evaluating mismatches of HLA eplets—small patches of surface-exposed amino acids of the HLA molecule—instead of antigen mismatches might offer a better approach to assessing donor-recipient HLA incompatibility and improve risk assessment and prediction of transplant outcomes.MethodsTo evaluate the effect of number of eplet mismatches (mismatch load) on de novo formation of donor-specific HLA antibodies (DSAs) and transplant outcomes, we conducted a cohort study that included consecutive adult kidney recipients transplanted at a single center from March 2004 to February 2013. We performed retrospective high-resolution genotyping of HLA loci of 926 transplant pairs and used the HLAMatchmaker computer algorithm to count HLA eplet mismatches.ResultsDe novo DSAs occurred in 43 (4.6%) patients. Multivariable analysis showed a significant independent association between antibody-verified eplet mismatch load and de novo DSA occurrence and graft failure, mainly explained by DQ antibody-verified eplet effects. The association with DQ antibody-verified eplet mismatches was linear, without a safe threshold at which de novo DSA did not occur. Odds for T cell– or antibody-mediated rejection increased by 5% and 12%, respectively, per antibody-verified DQ eplet mismatch.ConclusionsEplet mismatches in HLA-DQ confer substantial risk for de novo DSA formation, graft rejection, and graft failure after kidney transplantation. Mismatches in other loci seem to have less effect. The results suggest that antibody-verified HLA-DQ eplet mismatch load could be used to guide personalized post-transplant immunosuppression. Adoption of molecular matching for DQA1 and DQB1 alleles could also help to minimize de novo DSA formation and potentially improve transplant outcomes.

Proteinuria is routinely measured to assess renal allograft status, but the diagnostic and prognostic values of this measurement for renal transplant pathology and outcome remain unclear. We included 1518 renal allograft recipients in this prospective, observational cohort study. All renal allograft biopsy samples with concomitant data on 24-hour proteinuria were included in the analyses (n=2274). Patients were followed for $7 years posttransplantation. Compared with proteinuria ,0.3 g/24 h, the hazard ratios for graft failure were 1.14 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.81 to 1.60; P=0.50), for proteinuria 0.3-1.0 g/24 h, 2.17 (95% CI, 1.49 to 3.18; P,0.001), for proteinuria 1.0-3.0 g/24 h, and 3.01 (95% CI, 1.75 to 5.18; P,0.001), for proteinuria .3.0 g/24 h, independent of GFR and allograft histology. The predictive performance of proteinuria for graft failure was lower at 3 months after transplant (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.64, P,0.001) than at 1, 2, and 5 years after transplant (AUC 0.73, 0.71, and 0.77, respectively, all P,0.001). Independent determinants of proteinuria were repeat transplantation, mean arterial pressure, transplant glomerulopathy, microcirculation inflammation, and de novo/recurrent glomerular disease. The discriminatory power of proteinuria for these intragraft injury processes was better in biopsy samples obtained .3 months after transplant (AUC 0.73, P,0.001) than in those obtained earlier (AUC 0.56, P,0.01), with 85% specificity but lower sensitivity (47.8%) for proteinuria .1.0 g/24 h. These data support current clinical guidelines to routinely measure proteinuria after transplant, but illustrate the need for more sensitive biomarkers of allograft injury and prognosis.

BackgroundOver the past decades, an international group of experts iteratively developed a consensus classification of kidney transplant rejection phenotypes, known as the Banff classification. Data-driven clustering of kidney transplant histologic data could simplify the complex and discretionary rules of the Banff classification, while improving the association with graft failure.MethodsThe data consisted of a training set of 3510 kidney-transplant biopsies from an observational cohort of 936 recipients. Independent validation of the results was performed on an external set of 3835 biopsies from 1989 patients. On the basis of acute histologic lesion scores and the presence of donor-specific HLA antibodies, stable clustering was achieved on the basis of a consensus of 400 different clustering partitions. Additional information on kidney-transplant failure was introduced with a weighted Euclidean distance.ResultsBased on the proportion of ambiguous clustering, six clinically meaningful cluster phenotypes were identified. There was significant overlap with the existing Banff classification (adjusted rand index, 0.48). However, the data-driven approach eliminated intermediate and mixed phenotypes and created acute rejection clusters that are each significantly associated with graft failure. Finally, a novel visualization tool presents disease phenotypes and severity in a continuous manner, as a complement to the discrete clusters.ConclusionsA semisupervised clustering approach for the identification of clinically meaningful novel phenotypes of kidney transplant rejection has been developed and validated. The approach has the potential to offer a more quantitative evaluation of rejection subtypes and severity, especially in situations in which the current histologic categorization is ambiguous.