For a large class of processes with an absorbing state, statistical properties of the surviving sample attain time-independent values in the quasi-stationary (QS) regime. We propose a practical simulation method for studying quasi-stationary properties, based on the equation of motion governing the QS distribution. The method is tested in applications to the contact process. At the critical point, our method is about an order of magnitude more efficient than conventional simulation.

During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to reduce simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is very relevant to the risk of a healthcare system collapse. Although these strategies can be recommended, or even imposed, their actual implementation may depend on the population perception of the risks associated with a potential infection. The current COVID-19 crisis, for instance, is showing that some individuals are much more prone than others to remain isolated. To better understand these dynamics, we propose an epidemiological SIR model that uses evolutionary game theory for combining in a single process social strategies, individual risk perception, and viral spreading. In particular, we consider a disease spreading through a population, whose agents can choose between self-isolation and a lifestyle careless of any epidemic risk. The strategy adoption is individual and depends on the perceived disease risk compared to the quarantine cost. The game payoff governs the strategy adoption, while the epidemic process governs the agent’s health state. At the same time, the infection rate depends on the agent’s strategy while the perceived disease risk depends on the fraction of infected agents. Our results show recurrent infection waves, which are usually seen in previous historic epidemic scenarios with voluntary quarantine. In particular, such waves re-occur as the population reduces disease awareness. Notably, the risk perception is found to be fundamental for controlling the magnitude of the infection peak, while the final infection size is mainly dictated by the infection rates. Low awareness leads to a single and strong infection peak, while a greater disease risk leads to shorter, although more frequent, peaks. The proposed model spontaneously captures relevant aspects of a pandemic event, highlighting the fundamental role of social strategies.

We study a contact process (CP) with two species that interact in a symbiotic manner. In our model, each site of a lattice may be vacant or host individuals of species A and/or B; multiple occupancy by the same species is prohibited. Symbiosis is represented by a reduced death rate μ<1 for individuals at sites with both species present. Otherwise, the dynamics is that of the basic CP, with creation (at vacant neighbor sites) at rate λ and death of (isolated) individuals at a rate of unity. Mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulation show that the critical creation rate λ(c)(μ) is a decreasing function of μ, even though a single-species population must go extinct for λ<λ(c) (1), the critical point of the basic CP. Extensive simulations yield results for critical behavior that are compatible with the directed percolation (DP) universality class, but with unusually strong corrections to scaling. A field-theoretic argument supports the conclusion of DP critical behavior. We obtain similar results for a CP with creation at second-neighbor sites and enhanced survival at first neighbors in the form of an annihilation rate that decreases with the number of occupied first neighbors.

We study the continuous absorbing-state phase transition in the contact process on the VoronoiDelaunay lattice. The Voronoi construction is a natural way to introduce quenched coordination disorder in lattice models. We simulate the disordered system using the quasistationary simulation method and determine its critical exponents and moment ratios. Our results suggest that the critical behavior of the disordered system is unchanged with respect to that on a regular lattice, i.e., that of directed percolation.

We present quasi-stationary simulations of the two-dimensional contact process with quenched disorder included through the random dilution of a fraction of the lattice sites (these sites are not susceptible to infection). Our results strongly indicate that the static exponents are independent of the immunization fraction. In addition, the critical moment ratios m = ρ 2 / ρ 2 deviate from the universal ratio m = 1.328, observed for the non-dilluted system, to smaller values due to rare favorable regions which dominate the statistics.