Assuming that 20% to 30% of the population would become ill, 1.7 to 3.5 billion respirators would be needed in the base case scenario, 2.6 to 4.3 billion in the intermediate demand scenario, and up to 7.3 billion in the maximum demand scenario (for all scenarios, between 0.1 and 0.4 billion surgical masks would be required for patients). For pandemics with a lower attack rate and fewer cases (eg, 2009-like pandemic), the number of respirators needed would be higher because the pandemic would have longer duration. Providing these numbers of respirators and surgical masks represents a logistic challenge for US public health agencies. Public health officials must urgently consider alternative use strategies for respirators and surgical masks during a pandemic that may vary from current practices.
Abstract. There are no published data on the economic burden for specific West Nile virus (WNV) clinical syndromes (i.e., fever, meningitis, encephalitis, and acute flaccid paralysis [AFP]). We estimated initial hospital and lost-productivity costs from 80 patients hospitalized with WNV disease in Colorado during 2003; 38 of these patients were followed for 5 years to determine long-term medical and lost-productivity costs. Initial costs were highest for patients with AFP (median $25,117; range $5,385-$283,381) and encephalitis (median $20,105; range $3,965-$324,167). Long-term costs were highest for patients with AFP (median $22,628; range $624-$439,945) and meningitis (median $10,556; range $0-$260,748). Extrapolating from this small cohort to national surveillance data, we estimated the total cumulative costs of reported WNV hospitalized cases from 1999 through 2012 to be $778 million (95% confidence interval $673 million-$1.01 billion). These estimates can be used in assessing the cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent WNV disease.
Toxin type A accounted for half of outbreaks, and these outbreaks had a higher proportion of patient ventilatory failure. Most outbreaks were due to point source exposures, while outbreaks due to commercial food were larger. For effective responses to foodborne botulism outbreaks, these findings demonstrate the need for timely outbreak investigation and hospital surge capacity.
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