ObjectiveTo develop and validate a pragmatic risk score to predict mortality in patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19).DesignProspective observational cohort study.SettingInternational Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study (performed by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium—ISARIC-4C) in 260 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales. Model training was performed on a cohort of patients recruited between 6 February and 20 May 2020, with validation conducted on a second cohort of patients recruited after model development between 21 May and 29 June 2020.ParticipantsAdults (age ≥18 years) admitted to hospital with covid-19 at least four weeks before final data extraction.Main outcome measureIn-hospital mortality.Results35 463 patients were included in the derivation dataset (mortality rate 32.2%) and 22 361 in the validation dataset (mortality rate 30.1%). The final 4C Mortality Score included eight variables readily available at initial hospital assessment: age, sex, number of comorbidities, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, level of consciousness, urea level, and C reactive protein (score range 0-21 points). The 4C Score showed high discrimination for mortality (derivation cohort: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.79; validation cohort: 0.77, 0.76 to 0.77) with excellent calibration (validation: calibration-in-the-large=0, slope=1.0). Patients with a score of at least 15 (n=4158, 19%) had a 62% mortality (positive predictive value 62%) compared with 1% mortality for those with a score of 3 or less (n=1650, 7%; negative predictive value 99%). Discriminatory performance was higher than 15 pre-existing risk stratification scores (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve range 0.61-0.76), with scores developed in other covid-19 cohorts often performing poorly (range 0.63-0.73).ConclusionsAn easy-to-use risk stratification score has been developed and validated based on commonly available parameters at hospital presentation. The 4C Mortality Score outperformed existing scores, showed utility to directly inform clinical decision making, and can be used to stratify patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 into different management groups. The score should be further validated to determine its applicability in other populations.Study registrationISRCTN66726260

On the 24 th November 2021 the sequence of a new SARS CoV-2 viral isolate Omicron-B.1.1.529 was announced, containing far more mutations in Spike (S) than previously reported variants. Neutralization titres of Omicron by sera from vaccinees and convalescent subjects infected with early pandemic as well as Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta are substantially reduced or fail to neutralize. Titres against Omicron are boosted by third vaccine doses and are high in cases both vaccinated and infected by Delta. Mutations in Omicron knock out or substantially reduce neutralization by most of a large panel of potent monoclonal antibodies and antibodies under commercial development. Omicron S has structural changes from earlier viruses, combining mutations conferring tight binding to ACE2 to unleash evolution driven by immune escape, leading to a large number of mutations in the ACE2 binding site which rebalance receptor affinity to that of early pandemic viruses.

Lentiviruses such as HIV-1 traverse nuclear pore complexes (NPC) and infect terminally differentiated non-dividing cells, but how they do this is unclear. The cytoplasmic NPC protein Nup358/RanBP2 was identified as an HIV-1 co-factor in previous studies. Here we report that HIV-1 capsid (CA) binds directly to the cyclophilin domain of Nup358/RanBP2. Fusion of the Nup358/RanBP2 cyclophilin (Cyp) domain to the tripartite motif of TRIM5 created a novel inhibitor of HIV-1 replication, consistent with an interaction in vivo. In contrast to CypA binding to HIV-1 CA, Nup358 binding is insensitive to inhibition with cyclosporine, allowing contributions from CypA and Nup358 to be distinguished. Inhibition of CypA reduced dependence on Nup358 and the nuclear basket protein Nup153, suggesting that CypA regulates the choice of the nuclear import machinery that is engaged by the virus. HIV-1 cyclophilin-binding mutants CA G89V and P90A favored integration in genomic regions with a higher density of transcription units and associated features than wild type virus. Integration preference of wild type virus in the presence of cyclosporine was similarly altered to regions of higher transcription density. In contrast, HIV-1 CA alterations in another patch on the capsid surface that render the virus less sensitive to Nup358 or TRN-SR2 depletion (CA N74D, N57A) resulted in integration in genomic regions sparse in transcription units. Both groups of CA mutants are impaired in replication in HeLa cells and human monocyte derived macrophages. Our findings link HIV-1 engagement of cyclophilins with both integration targeting and replication efficiency and provide insight into the conservation of viral cyclophilin recruitment.

HIV-1 is able to replicate in primary human macrophages without stimulating innate immunity despite reverse transcription of genomic RNA into double stranded DNA, an activity that might be expected to trigger innate pattern recognition receptors (PRRs). We hypothesized that, if correctly orchestrated HIV-1 uncoating and nuclear entry is important for evasion of innate sensors, then manipulation of specific interactions between HIV-1 capsid (CA) and host factors that putatively regulate these processes should trigger PRRs and stimulate type 1 interferon secretion. Here we show that HIV-1 CA mutants N74D and P90A, which are impaired for interaction with cofactors Cleavage and Polyadenylation Specificity Factor subunit 6 (CPSF6) and cyclophilins (Nup358 and CypA) respectively(1-2), cannot replicate in primary human monocyte derived macrophages (MDM) because they trigger innate sensors leading to nuclear translocation of NFκB and IRF3, the production of soluble type-1 interferon (IFN) and induction of an antiviral state. Depletion of CPSF6 with shRNA expression allows wild type virus to trigger innate sensors and interferon production. In each case, suppressed replication is rescued by IFN-receptor blockade demonstrating a role for IFN in restriction. IFN production is dependent on viral reverse transcription but not integration suggesting that a viral reverse transcription product comprises the HIV-1 pathogen associated molecular pattern (PAMP). Finally, we show that we can pharmacologically induce wild type HIV-1 infection to stimulate IFN secretion and an antiviral state using a non-immunosuppressive cyclosporine analogue. We conclude that HIV-1 has evolved to utilize CPSF6 and cyclophilins to cloak its replication allowing evasion of innate immune sensors and induction of a cell autonomous innate immune response in primary human macrophages (Extended Data Fig 1).