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Abstract.A latitudinal-distributed network of GPS receivers has been operating within Colombia, Peru and Chile with sufficient latitudinal span to measure the absolute total electron content (TEC) at both crests of the equatorial anomaly. The network also provides the latitudinal extension of GPS scintillations and TEC depletions. The GPS-based information has been supplemented with density profiles collected with the Jicamarca digisonde and JULIA power maps to investigate the background conditions of the nighttime ionosphere that prevail during the formation and the persistence of plasma depletions. This paper presents case-study events in which the latitudinal extension of GPS scintillations, the maximum latitude of TEC depletion detections, and the altitude extension of radar plumes are correlated with the location and extension of the equatorial anomaly. Then it shows the combined statistics of GPS scintillations, TEC depletions, TEC latitudinal profiles, and bottomside density profiles collected between September 2001 and June 2002. It is demonstrated that multiple sights of TEC depletions from different stations can be used to estimate the drift of the background plasma, the tilt of the plasma plumes, and in some cases even the approximate time and location of the depletion onset. This study corroborates the fact that TEC depletions and radar plumes coincide with intense levels of GPS scintillations. Bottomside radar traces do not seem to be associated with GPS scintillations. It is demonstrated that scintillations/depletions can occur when the TEC latitude profiles are symmetric, asymmetric or highly asymmetric; this is during the absence of one crest. Comparison of the location of the northern crest of the equatorial anomaly and the maximum latitude of scintillations reveals that for 90% of the days, scintillations are confined within the boundaries of the 50% decay limit of the anomaly crests. The crests of the anomaly are the regions where the most intense GPS scintillations and the deepest TEC depletions are encountered. In accord with early results, we observe that GPS scintillaCorrespondence to: C. E. Valladares (valladar@bc.edu) tions/TEC depletions mainly occur when the altitude of the magnetic equator F-region is above 500 km. Nevertheless, in many instances GPS scintillations and TEC depletions are observed to exist when the F-layer is well below 500 km or to persist when the F-layer undergoes its typical nighttime descent. Close inspection of the TEC profiles during scintillations/depletions events that occur when the equatorial F-layer peak is below 500 km altitude reveals that on these occasions the ratio of the crest-to-equator TEC is above 2, and the crests are displaced 10 • or more from the magnetic equator. When the equatorial F-layer is above 500 km, neither of the two requirements is needed, as the flux tube seems to be inherently unstable. We discuss these findings in terms of the RayleighTaylor instability (RTI) mechanism for flux-tube integrated quantities. We advance the idea that ...

[1] Orbit-averaged mass densities r and exospheric temperatures T 1 inferred from measurements by accelerometers on the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites are used to investigate global energy E th and power P th inputs to the thermosphere during two complex magnetic storms. Measurements show r, T 1 , and E th rising from and returning to prevailing baselines as the magnetospheric electric field e VS and the Dst index wax and wane. Observed responses of E th and T 1 to e VS driving suggest that the storm time thermosphere evolves as a driven-but-dissipative thermodynamic system, described by a first-order differential equation that is identical in form to that governing the behavior of Dst. Coupling and relaxation coefficients of the E th , T 1 , and Dst equations are established empirically. Numerical solutions of the equations for T 1 and E th are shown to agree with GRACE data during large magnetic storms. Since T 1 and Dst have the same e VS driver, it is possible to combine their governing equations to obtain estimates of storm time thermospheric parameters, even when lacking information about interplanetary conditions. This approach has the potential for significantly improving the performance of operational models used to calculate trajectories of satellites and space debris and is also useful for developing forensic reconstructions of past magnetic storms. The essential correctness of the approach is supported by agreement between thermospheric power inputs calculated from both GRACE-based estimates of E th and the Weimer Poynting flux model originally derived from electric and magnetic field measurements acquired by the Dynamics Explorer 2 satellite.

Abstract. We have constructed latitudinal profiles of the total electron content (TEC) using measurements from six GPS receivers conducted during 1998. The TEC profiles have been divided into two groups: One corresponds to days when plumes or equatorial spread F (ESF) develops, and the second group portrays days of no-ESF condition.

[1] This paper describes new capabilities for operational geomagnetic Disturbance storm time (Dst) index forecasts. We present a data-driven, deterministic algorithm called Anemomilos for forecasting Dst out to a maximum of 6 days for large, medium, and small storms, depending upon transit time to the Earth. This capability is used for operational satellite management and debris avoidance in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Anemomilos has a 15 min cadence, 1 h time granularity, 144 h prediction window (+6 days), and up to 1 h latency. A new finding is that nearly all flare events above a certain irradiance threshold, occurring within a defined solar longitude/latitude region and having sufficient estimated liftoff velocity of ejected material, will produce a geoeffective Dst perturbation. Three solar observables are used for operational Dst forecasting: flare magnitude, integrated flare irradiance through time, and event location. Magnitude is a proxy for ejecta quantity or mass and, combined with speed derived from the integrated flare irradiance, represents the kinetic energy. Speed is estimated as the line-of-sight velocity for events within 45°radial of solar disk center. Storms resulting from high-speed streams emanating from coronal holes are not modeled or predicted. A new result is that solar disk, not limb, observable features are used for predictive techniques. Comparisons between Anemomilos predicted and measured Dst for every hour over 25 months in three continuous time frames between 2001 (high solar activity), 2005 (low solar activity), and 2012 (rising solar activity) are shown. The Anemomilos operational algorithm was developed for a specific customer use related to thermospheric mass density forecasting. It is an operational space weather technology breakthrough using solar disk observables to predict geomagnetically effective Dst up to several days at 1 h time granularity. Real-time forecasts are presented at