We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.

This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China.

The breeding and survival of New Zealand Pigeons Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae were studied by radiotelemetry at three contrasting native forest sites in the North and South Islands of New Zealand. At each site, mean annual productivity was low (0‐0.12 fledglings/adult) in relation to the mean annual rate of adult mortality (0.18‐0.53). Losses of eggs and chicks to introduced mammals were the main identified causes of nest failure. Causes of adult mortality included episodic predation by introduced mammals and apparent starvation in spring at one site. At the most intensively‐studied site (Pelorus Bridge), where 75 birds were radiotagged over 7 years, there was a marked annual variation in breeding success (0‐0.3 fledglings/adult), including one season (1986–1987) when no breeding activity was detected at all. New Zealand Pigeons were legally hunted in the past, but our results indicate that harvesting is unlikely to be sustainable under current ecological conditions.

Our 12th annual horizon scan identified 15 emerging issues of concern for global biodiversity conservation.A panel of 25 scientists and practitioners submitted a total of 97 topics that were ranked using a Delphi-style technique according to novelty and likelihood of impact on biodiversity conservation.The top 38 issues were discussed at an online meeting held in September 2020 during which issues were ranked according to the same criteria.Six of the 15 issues primarily affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven are related to human and ecosystem-level responses to anthropogenic climate change.Other emerging issues include complete coverage of Indian states for sustainable farming and the potential for use of selfhealing building materials.

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