The 2004-05 eruption of Mount St Helens exhibited sustained, near-equilibrium behaviour characterized by relatively steady extrusion of a solid dacite plug and nearly periodic shallow earthquakes. Here we present a diverse data set to support our hypothesis that these earthquakes resulted from stick-slip motion along the margins of the plug as it was forced incrementally upwards by ascending, solidifying, gas-poor magma. We formalize this hypothesis with a dynamical model that reveals a strong analogy between behaviour of the magma-plug system and that of a variably damped oscillator. Modelled stick-slip oscillations have properties that help constrain the balance of forces governing the earthquakes and eruption, and they imply that magma pressure never deviated much from the steady equilibrium pressure. We infer that the volcano was probably poised in a near-eruptive equilibrium state long before the onset of the 2004-05 eruption.
The velocity field within a 100‐km‐broad zone centered on the San Andreas fault between the Mexican border and San Francisco Bay has been inferred from repeated surveys of trilateration networks in the 1973–1989 interval. The velocity field has the appearance of a shear flow that remains parallel to the local strike of the fault even through such major deflections as the big bend of the San Andreas fault in the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Across‐strike profiles of the fault‐parallel component of velocity exhibit the expected sigmoidal shape, whereas across‐strike profiles of the fault‐normal component of velocity are flat and featureless. No significant convergence upon the fault is observed even along the big bend sector of the fault. Simple dislocation models can explain most of the features of the observed velocity field, but those explanations are not unique. About 35 mm/yr of relative plate motion is accounted for within the span of the trilateration networks. Geologic studies indicate that the secular slip rate on the San Andreas fault is about 35 mm/yr. The agreement between these two estimates implies that most of the strain accumulation is elastic and will be recovered in subsequent earthquakes. The relative motion observed across the San Andreas fault (35 mm/yr) plus that observed across the Eastern California shear zone (8 mm/yr) accounts for most (43 mm/yr) of the observed North America‐Pacific relative plate motion (47 mm/yr).
Campaign Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements from 1990 to 1996 are used to calculate surface displacement rates on Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. The GPS data show that the south flank of the volcano, which has generated several large earthquakes in the past 3 decades, is displacing at up to ∼8 cm/yr to the south‐southeast. The summit and rift zones are subsiding, with maximum subsidence rates of ∼8 cm/yr observed a few kilometers south of the summit caldera. Elastic dislocation modeling of the GPS data suggests that the active sources of deformation include deep rift opening along the upper east and east rift zone, fault slip along a subhorizontal fault near the base of the volcano, and deflation near the summit caldera. A nonlinear optimization algorithm was used to explore the parameter space and to find the best fitting source geometry. There is a broad range of model geometries that fit the data reasonably well. However, certain models can be ruled out, including those that have shallow rift opening or shallow fault slip. Some offshore, aseismic slip on a fault plane that dips between 25° northnorthwest and 8° south‐southeast is required. Best fitting slip and rift opening rates are 23–28 cm/yr, although rates as low as 10 cm/yr are permitted by the data.
The coseismic slip and geometry of the March 15, 1979, Homestead Valley, California, earthquake sequence are well constrained by precise hofizontal and vertical geodetic observations and by data from a dense local seismic network. These observations indicate 0.52 _ 0.10 m of fight-lateral slip and 0.17 _ 0.04 m of reverse slip on a bufied vertical 6-km-long and 5-km-deep fault and yield a mean static stress drop of 7.2 _ 1.3 MPa. The largest shock had Ms = 5.6. Observations of the ground rupture revealed up to 0.1 m of fight-lateral slip on two mapped faults that are subparallel to the modeled seismic slip plane. In the 1.9 years since the earthquakes, geodetic network displacements indicate that an additional 60 _ 10 mm of postseismic creep took place. The rate of postseismic shear strain (0.53 _ 0.13 Ixrad/yr) measured within a 30 x 30-km network centered on the pfincipal events was anomalously high compared to its preearthquake value and the postseismic rate in the adjacent network. This transient cannot be explained by postseismic slip on the seismic fault but rather indicates that broadscale release of strain followed the earthquake sequence. We have calculated the postearthquake stress field caused by the modeled coseismic slip. We assume that failure is promoted when the sum of the shear stress plus 0.75 times the fault-opening stress increases. Most aftershocks concentrate at points where the stresses are enhanced by 0.3 MPa (3 bars) or more; aftershocks are nearly absent where postearthquake stresses decrease by 0.3-0.5 MPa. Isolated off-fault clusters of aftershocks that locate at one fault length from the rupture plane are explainable by this hypothesis. We find that ground rupture and postseismic creep take place where near-surface stresses are calculated to increase within the preexisting fault zones. Two patches that extend 4 km from both ends of the seismic fault exhibited neither aftershocks nor measurable postseismic creep. The sensitivity of aftershocks and ground rupture to changes in stress that are less than 5% of the earthquake stress drop demonstrates that the region around the earthquakes was within a few percent of its failure threshold before the main shocks. The preearthquake stress field and the stress required for failure must also have been nearly uniform.
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