The population of the Western Arctic Herd, estimated at 490 000 caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) in 2003, is at its highest level in 30 years. Twenty permanent range transects were established in the winter range of the Western Arctic Herd in 1981 to assess the impacts of grazing. These transects were revisited in 1995 and 1996 (1995/96 Shrub cover increased during the study whereas forb cover declined. The decline in lichen abundance on the winter range of the Western Arctic Herd over 24 years is an index of caribou habitat condition. The observed changes in vegetation cover can be attributed to caribou grazing, fire, and possibly global climate change. Continued declines in lichen cover could lead to population declines within the herd, range shifts, or both.

We compared winter diets of Western Arctic Herd Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) from 1995/1996 and 2005 using microhistological fecal analysis on samples collected at paired permanent vegetation transects. Changes in the diets of Caribou followed the same trends as vegetative changes documented in long-term studies in northwestern Alaska. Lichens were significantly less prevalent on the landscape and in the winter diets of Caribou between 1995/1996 and 2005, while graminoids (grasses and sedges) were significantly more prevalent. Dramatic changes are forecasted for Arctic ecosystems under global warming scenarios which may continue the trend of declining lichens in northwestern Alaska and in the diet of Western Arctic Herd Caribou. The question of whether or not the altered diet will affect the population dynamics of this herd remains unresolved.

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