Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near‐Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best‐known indices are calculated from ground‐based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM‐H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root‐mean‐square error and mean absolute error that are applied to a time series comparison of model output and observations and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. A few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices.
We present initial results from the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model during the Halloween 2003 superstorm. The objective of NAIRAS is to produce global, real‐time, data‐driven predictions of ionizing radiation for archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes. We have conducted a case study of radiation exposure during a high‐energy solar energetic particle (SEP) event in October 2003. The purpose of the case study is to quantify the important influences of the storm time and quiet time magnetospheric magnetic field on high‐latitude SEP atmospheric radiation exposure. The Halloween 2003 superstorm is an ideal event to study magnetospheric influences on atmospheric radiation exposure since this event was accompanied by a major magnetic storm which was one of the largest of solar cycle 23. We find that neglecting geomagnetic storm effects during SEP events can underestimate the high‐latitude radiation exposure from nearly 15% to over a factor of 2, depending on the flight path relative to the magnetosphere open‐closed boundary.
The loss of protons in the outer part of the inner radiation belt (L = 2 to 3) during the 17 March 2015 geomagnetic storm was investigated using test particle simulations that follow full Lorentz trajectories with both magnetic and electric fields calculated from an empirical model. The simulation results presented here are compared with proton pitch angle measurements from the Van Allen Probe satellites Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope (REPT) instrument before and after the coronal mass ejection‐shock‐driven storm of 17–18 March 2015, with minimum Dst =− 223 nT, the strongest storm of Solar Cycle 24, for four different energy ranges with 30, 38, 50, and 66 MeV mean energies. Two simulations have been run, one with an inductive electric field and one without. All four energy channels show good agreement with the Van Allen Probes REPT measurements for low L (L < 2.4) in both simulations but diverge for higher L values. The inclusion of the inductive electric field, calculated from the time‐changing magnetic field, significantly improves the agreement between simulation and REPT measurements at L > 2.4. A previous study using the Highly Elliptical Orbiter 3 spacecraft also showed improved agreement when including the inductive electric field but was unable to compare effects on the pitch angle distributions.
The loss of protons in the outer part of the inner radiation belt (L = 2 to 3) during the 6 April 2000 solar energetic particles event has been investigated using test particle simulations that follow full Lorentz trajectories with both magnetic and electric fields calculated from an empirical model. The electric fields are calculated as inductive fields generated by the time‐changing magnetic field, which is achieved by time stepping analytic magnetic fields. The simulation results are compared with proton measurements from the highly elliptical orbit satellite for three different energy ranges (8.5–35 MeV, 16–40 MeV, and 27–45 MeV) as well as previous modeling work done. In previous work, inner zone radiation belt loss during geomagnetic storms has been modeled by simulating field line curvature scattering in static magnetic field snapshots with no electric field. The inclusion of the inductive electric field causes an increase in loss to lower L shells, improving the agreement with the satellite data.
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