Driving behavior is one of the most critical factors in traffic accidents. Accurate vehicle acceleration prediction approaches can promote the development of Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) and improve traffic safety. However, few prediction models consider the characteristics of individual drivers, which may overlook the potential heterogeneity of driving behavior. In this study, a vehicle acceleration prediction model based on machine learning methods and driving behavior analysis is proposed. First, the driving behavior data are preprocessed, and the relative distance, relative speed, and acceleration of the subject vehicle are selected as feature variables to describe the driving behavior. Then, a finite Mixture of Hidden Markov Model (MHMM) is used to divide the driving behavior semantics. The model can divide heterogeneous data into different behavioral semantic fragments within different time lengths. Next, the similarity of different behavioral semantic fragments is evaluated using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. In total, 10 homogenous drivers are classified as the first group, and the remaining 20 drivers are classified as the second group. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU) are used to predict the vehicle acceleration for both groups. The prediction results show that the proposed method in this study can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of vehicle acceleration.
Analyzing driving style is useful for developing intelligent vehicles. Previous studies usually consider the statistical features (e.g., the means and standard deviations of brake pressure) of the measured driving data or manually define the number of patterns divided by behavior semantics to characterize driving styles. In this paper, we propose a driving style analysis to describe the personalized driving styles from time-series driving data without specifying the levels in advance but by estimating them from the data. First, range, range rate, and acceleration are selected as three feature variables to describe car-following scenarios. Then, the car-following data are normalized to reduce the scale influence of different variables on the segmentation results. The hidden Markov model (HMM) and the finite mixture of the hidden Markov model (MHMM) are adopted to extract behavior semantics. Compared with the HMM, the MHMM can identify the heterogeneity of data and then provide more reasonable primitive driving patterns. Based on the results, this study uses the K-means clustering to label all the driving patterns semantically and identifies a total of 75 different driving patterns. We use the normalized frequency distributions to describe personalized driving behavior characteristics, and similarity evaluations of driving styles are applied using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The proposed approach in this paper is useful for exploring the characteristics of driving habits.
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