Over the last few decades, rising greenhouse gas emissions have promoted poleward expansion of the large-scale atmospheric Hadley circulation that dominates the Tropics, thereby affecting behavior of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Expression of these changes in tropical marine ecosystems is poorly understood because of sparse observational datasets. We link contemporary ecological changes in the southern Caribbean Sea to global climate change indices. Monthly observations from the CARIACO Ocean Time-Series between 1996 and 2010 document significant decadal scale trends, including a net sea surface temperature (SST) rise of ∼1.0 ± 0.14°C (±SE), intensified stratification, reduced delivery of upwelled nutrients to surface waters, and diminished phytoplankton bloom intensities evident as overall declines in chlorophyll a concentrations (ΔChla = −2.8 ± 0.5%·y −1 ) and net primary production (ΔNPP = −1.5 ± 0.3%·y −1 ). Additionally, phytoplankton taxon dominance shifted from diatoms, dinoflagellates, and coccolithophorids to smaller taxa after 2004, whereas mesozooplankton biomass increased and commercial landings of planktivorous sardines collapsed. Collectively, our results reveal an ecological state change in this planktonic system. The weakening trend in Trade Winds (−1.9 ± 0.3%·y −1 ) and dependent local variables are largely explained by trends in two climatic indices, namely the northward migration of the Azores High pressure center (descending branch of Hadley cell) by 1.12 ± 0.42°N latitude and the northeasterly progression of the ITCZ Atlantic centroid (ascending branch of Hadley cell), the March position of which shifted by about 800 km between 1996 and 2009. ecosystem state change | oceanography | plankton productivity P hytoplankton support over 95% of marine food webs and are responsible for about half of the Earth's conversion of CO 2 to biomass through net primary production (NPP) (1). Long-term declines in phytoplankton biomass and production in over 70% of the global ocean have been inferred recently from satellite imagery and century-long shipboard records of water clarity (2, 3). These reports of large-scale changes are at odds with trends directly observed at specific locations within the same ocean domains.

Model projections indicate that climate change may dramatically restructure phytoplankton communities, with cascading consequences for marine food webs. It is currently not known whether evolutionary change is likely to be able to keep pace with the rate of climate change. For simplicity, and in the absence of evidence to the contrary, most model projections assume species have fixed environmental preferences and will not adapt to changing environmental conditions on the century scale. Using 15 y of observations from Station CARIACO (Carbon Retention in a Colored Ocean), we show that most of the dominant species from a marine phytoplankton community were able to adapt their realized niches to track average increases in water temperature and irradiance, but the majority of species exhibited a fixed niche for nitrate. We do not know the extent of this adaptive capacity, so we cannot conclude that phytoplankton will be able to adapt to the changes anticipated over the next century, but community ecosystem models can no longer assume that phytoplankton cannot adapt.phytoplankton | realized niches | climate change | evolution D uring the last several decades, global land temperature has increased by ∼0.3°C per decade (1), and a further increase in global mean air temperatures of 1.1-6.4°C is expected by 2100 (2). The warming of the oceans is resulting in spatially variable changes in sea surface temperature (3, 4), salinity, mixed-layer depth, and the distribution of nutrients. Ocean time series sampled on a monthly basis document intra-and interannual changes in physical forcing and biogeochemistry, providing crucial data for formulating ecosystem models and characterizing how ecosystems respond to climate change (5, 6). We have very high confidence that climate change during the last several decades has influenced the abundance, phenology, and geographic ranges for a wide assortment of species (7-10). Further increases in global temperature may result in significant and nonreversible changes to many populations and communities (11,12). If dispersal rates are rapid relative to the rate of evolutionary adaptation, changes in climate will result in local species being displaced by nonresident species from a regional pool of species that are better adapted to the new conditions (13). When modelers project changes in biotic communities under climate change scenarios, they generally assume that each species has a genetically determined fixed environmental niche and that species' spatial and temporal distributions will be determined by environmental conditions (14-17). A recent model of this type predicts a loss of a third of tropical phytoplankton strains by 2100 with a ∼2°C increase in mean temperature (11); however, paleoecological studies indicate organisms may be much more resilient to climate change than these types of models suggest (18,19).Local populations may be able to acclimate physiologically and then adapt through evolutionary change to gradual climate shifts. We do not know the constraints or timescales req...

TheCARIACO(Carbon Retention in a Colored Ocean) Ocean Time-Series Program station, located at 10.50°N, 64.66°W, observed biogeochemical and ecological processes in the Cariaco Basin of the southwestern Caribbean Sea from November 1995 to January 2017. The program completed 232 monthly core cruises, 40 sediment trap deployment cruises, and 40 microbiogeochemical process cruises. Upwelling along the southern Caribbean Sea occurs from approximately November to August. High biological productivity (320-628 g C m y) leads to large vertical fluxes of particulate organic matter, but only approximately 9-10 g C m y fall to the bottom sediments (∼1-3% of primary production). A diverse community of heterotrophic and chemoautotrophic microorganisms, viruses, and protozoa thrives within the oxic-anoxic interface. A decrease in upwelling intensity from approximately 2003 to 2013 and the simultaneous overfishing of sardines in the region led to diminished phytoplankton bloom intensities, increased phytoplankton diversity, and increased zooplankton densities. The deepest waters of the Cariaco Basin exhibited long-term positive trends in temperature, salinity, hydrogen sulfide, ammonia, phosphate, methane, and silica. Earthquakes and coastal flooding also resulted in the delivery of sediment to the seafloor. The program's legacy includes climate-quality data from suboxic and anoxic habitats and lasting relationships between international researchers. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science Volume 11 is January 3, 2019. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

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The spatial and temporal abundance of epiphytic dinoflagellates associated with ciguatera was studied over two annual cycles (March 1999 to March 2000 and March 2001 to March 2002) in the northwestern coast of Cuba. From 14 species of macroalgae (Phaeophyta, Chlorophyta, and Rhodophyta), 1340 samples were obtained identifying seven species as potentially noxious; five of them are new reports for Cuba's phytobenthos: Prorocentrum belizeanum Faust, P. concavum Fukuyo, P. mexicanum Tafall, Coolia monotis Meunier, and Ostreopsis lenticularis Fukuyo. ANOVA/MANOVA analysis showed significant spatial differences: lower cell abundance near the shoreline adjacent to a river inlet and higher cell abundance in the deepest area. Prorocentrum lima (Ehrenberg) Dodge 1975 was found mainly on Phaeophyta followed by Chlorophyta and Rhodophyta. Gambierdiscus toxicus was found mainly on Phaeophyta followed by Rhodophyta and Chlorophyta. All the species reported in the study area were mainly on Padina spp. (Phaeophyta). Acanthophora spicifera (Rhodophyta) did not host dinoflagellate species. Environmental conditions in summer (higher temperature, more nutrients, greater water transparency, and low wind intensity) are suitable for macroalgae development, which serves as a substrate for potentially harmful dinoflagellates, and possibly the main vector for spreading ciguatera along the coast of Cuba. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54(2): 299-310. Epub 2006 Jun 01.

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