ABSTRACT. An assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Mexico to climate change is carried out on the basis of the scenarios projected by 3 climate models. A vegetation classification was performed according to 2 models, the Holdridge Life Zone Classification and the so-called Mexican Classification (a climate-vegetation classification based on typologies developed for Mexico). Projections of climate models were based on a doubled CO2 concentration condition. The models used were: the CCCM, which estimates an average increase in temperature for the country of 2.8"C and a decrease in annual precipitation of 7 %; the GFDL-R30, which estimates an increase in both parameters by 3.2"C and 20% respectively; and a sensitivity model in which a homogeneous increase of 2°C in temperature and a 10% decrease in precipitation are applied throughout the country. In general, the cool temperate and warm temperate ecosystems were the most affected and tended to disappear under the conditions of the 3 scenarios In contrast, the dry and very dry tropical forests and the warm thorn woodlands tended to occupy larger areas than at present, particularly under the conditions projected by the CCCM model. However, under the GFDL-derived scenario an increase in the distribution of moist and wet forests, which would be favoured by an increase in precipitation, was predicted.
Abstract. An ordination analysis of vegetation and flora of Los Cabos Region, Baja California Peninsula, Mexico and its relationships with their environment and geomorphic characteristics was studied at 38 sites, selected based on ecoregion mapping units (EMU) previously delineated for the study area. Multivariate methods were used to analyse the relationship between physical characteristics of the environment and the two primary vegetation types, the Dry tropical forest (DTF) and the Xerophilous scrubland (XS), which together represent 83% of the vegetation cover in the study area. Sites were grouped based on both physical characteristics and relative abundance of plant species. The results of the statistical analysis suggest that altitude, rainfall, temperature, and lithology can help explaining differences between these important vegetation types. In the case of XS, the morpho‐physiognomic characteristics of vegetation in each site discriminated between two scrub types.
RESUMENEntre los sistemas de alerta temprana de incendios forestales destaca el desarrollado por el Servicio Forestal de Canadá, denominado Fire Weather Index (FWI). Con el fin de contribuir a la creación de un sistema de alerta temprana, se utilizó este índice para determinar las condiciones de peligro a incendios en el Parque Nacional Malinche a partir de una serie de datos diarios de enero 2004 a octubre 2009 de cinco estaciones meteorológicas automáticas instaladas en el parque a una altitud de 3,000 m, se hicieron los cálculos de los elementos que contiene el índice; para ello, se empleó la versión automatizada del Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. Se realizaron correlaciones y se crearon cuatro categorías con los valores de los componentes, según la frecuencia de incendios y el área siniestrada. También, se señalaron, los valores de temperatura máxima y mínima, humedad relativa y lluvia por categoría. Se constituyeron los umbrales mínimos de gran peligrosidad a incendios para cada uno de los elementos. En el caso del código de humedad de los combustibles finos, el umbral se estableció en 80 puntos; de superarse este valor, el número de incendios por día se incrementa sustancialmente. El código de sequía, el Índice de dispersión inicial del fuego; así como, el Índice acumulado fueron los más significativos en relación a la frecuencia de incendios, por lo que se calculó la probabilidad de estos eventos, para ciertos intervalos de los elementos considerados.Palabras clave: Alerta temprana de incendios, áreas naturales protegidas, códigos de humedad de combustibles, FWI, índice potencial de fuego, prevención de incendios forestales. ABSTRACTAmong the early warning systems there is one developed by the Canadian Forest Service, called the Fire Weather Index (FWI). To contribute in the creation of an early warning system this index was used to determine the fire danger conditions in Malinche National Park. Calculations of the elements contained in the FWI system were made using the automated version of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System applied to a series of daily data from January 2004 to October 2009 in five weather stations installed in the park at an altitude of 3,000 m. Four categories were created with the values of the correlation components according to fire frequency and damaged area. Maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and rain were identified. Minimum high fire danger thresholds were set for each one of the elements. In the case of Fine Fuel Moisture Code the maximum threshold was set at 80 points, if this value is exceeded the number of fires per day substantially increased. The Drought Code, the Initial Spread Index and Buildup Index, were most significant in relation to fire frequency. The probability of fires was calculated according to certain ranges of values of these components.
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