The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming, mainly due to changes in frequency, while the intensity changes are relatively weak, in accordance to previous studies. This shift towards stronger total precipitation from extreme events is seen in observations and climate models, and increases with the strength – and hence the rareness – of the event. Based on these results, we project that if historical trends continue, the most intense precipitation events observed today are likely to almost double in occurrence for each degree of further global warming. Changes to extreme precipitation of this magnitude are dramatically stronger than the more widely communicated changes to global mean precipitation.

A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-ofits-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both "weather-like" (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and "climate" (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18-21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land-ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes. Keywords Convection-permitting • Ensemble models • Climate applicationsThis paper is a contribution to the special issue on Advances in Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling, consisting of papers that focus on the evaluation, climate change assessment, and feedback processes in kilometer-scale simulations and observations. The special issue is coordinated by

Abstract. In this study, we quantify the impacts of shipping pollution on air quality and shortwave radiative effect in northern Norway, using WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with chemistry) simulations combined with high-resolution, real-time STEAM2 (Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model version 2) shipping emissions. STEAM2 emissions are evaluated using airborne measurements from the ACCESS (Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society) aircraft campaign, which was conducted in the summer 2012, in two ways. First, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are derived for specific ships by combining in situ measurements in ship plumes and FLEXPART-WRF plume dispersion modeling, and these values are compared to STEAM2 emissions for the same ships. Second, regional WRF-Chem runs with and without STEAM2 ship emissions are performed at two different resolutions, 3 km  ×  3 km and 15 km  ×  15 km, and evaluated against measurements along flight tracks and average campaign profiles in the marine boundary layer and lower troposphere. These comparisons show that differences between STEAM2 emissions and calculated emissions can be quite large (−57 to +148 %) for individual ships, but that WRF-Chem simulations using STEAM2 emissions reproduce well the average NOx, SO2 and O3 measured during ACCESS flights. The same WRF-Chem simulations show that the magnitude of NOx and ozone (O3) production from ship emissions at the surface is not very sensitive (< 5 %) to the horizontal grid resolution (15 or 3 km), while surface PM10 particulate matter enhancements due to ships are moderately sensitive (15 %) to resolution. The 15 km resolution WRF-Chem simulations are used to estimate the regional impacts of shipping pollution in northern Norway. Our results indicate that ship emissions are an important source of pollution along the Norwegian coast, enhancing 15-day-averaged surface concentrations of NOx ( ∼  +80 %), SO2 ( ∼  +80 %), O3 ( ∼  +5 %), black carbon ( ∼  +40 %), and PM2.5 ( ∼ +10 %). The residence time of black carbon originating from shipping emissions is 1.4 days. Over the same 15-day period, ship emissions in northern Norway have a global shortwave (direct + semi-direct + indirect) radiative effect of −9.3 m Wm−2.

International audienceArctic sea ice has decreased dramatically in the past few decades and the Arctic is increasingly open to transit shipping and natural resource extraction. However, large knowledge gaps exist regarding composition and impacts of emissions associated with these activities. Arctic hydrocarbon extraction is currently under development due to the large oil/gas reserves in the region. Transit shipping through the Arctic as an alternative to the traditional shipping routes is currently underway. These activities are expected to increase emissions of air pollutants and climate forcers (e.g. aerosols, ozone) in the Arctic troposphere significantly in the future. We present the first measurements of these activities off the coast of Norway taken in summer 2012 as part of the European Arctic Climate Change, Economy, and Society (ACCESS) project. The objectives include quantifying the impact anthropogenic activities will have on regional air pollution and understanding the connections to Arctic climate. Trace gas and aerosol concentrations in pollution plumes were measured, including emissions from different ship types and several offshore extraction facilities. Emissions originating from industrial activities (smelting) on the Kola Peninsula were also sampled. In addition, pollution plumes originating from Siberian biomass burning were probed in order to put the emerging local pollution within a broader context. In near future these measurements will be combined with model simulations to quantify the influence of local anthropogenic activities on Arctic composition. Here we present the scientific objectives of the ACCESS aircraft experiment, the meteorological conditions during the campaign, and highlight first scientific results from the experiment