Classifying the biological traits of organisms can test conceptual frameworks of life-history strategies and allow for predictions of how different species may respond to environmental disturbances. We apply a trait-based classification approach to a complex and threatened group of species, scleractinian corals. Using hierarchical clustering and random forests analyses, we identify up to four life-history strategies that appear globally consistent across 143 species of reef corals: competitive, weedy, stress-tolerant and generalist taxa, which are primarily separated by colony morphology, growth rate and reproductive mode. Documented shifts towards stress-tolerant, generalist and weedy species in coral reef communities are consistent with the expected responses of these life-history strategies. Our quantitative trait-based approach to classifying life-history strategies is objective, applicable to any taxa and a powerful tool that can be used to evaluate theories of community ecology and predict the impact of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on species assemblages.

The ecology of many coral reefs has changed markedly over recent decades in response to various combinations of local and global stressors. These ecological changes have important implications for the abundance of taxa that regulate the production and erosion of skeletal carbonates, and thus for many of the geo‐ecological functions that coral reefs provide, including reef framework production and sediment generation, the maintenance of reef habitat complexity and reef growth potential. These functional attributes underpin many of the ecosystem goods and services that reefs provide to society. Rapidly changing conditions of reefs in the Anthropocene are likely to significantly impact the capacity of reefs to sustain these geo‐ecological functions. Although the Anthropocene footprint of disturbance will be expressed differently across ecoregions and habitats, the end point for many reefs may be broadly similar: (a) progressively shifting towards net neutral or negative carbonate budget states; (b) becoming structurally flatter; and (c) having lower vertical growth rates. It is also likely that a progressive depth‐homogenisation will occur in terms of these processes. The Anthropocene is likely to be defined by an increasing disconnect between the ecological processes that drive carbonate production on the reef surface, and the net geological outcome of that production, that is, the accumulation of the underlying reef structure. Reef structures are thus likely to become increasingly relict or senescent features, which will reduce reef habitat complexity and sediment generation rates, and limit reef potential to accrete vertically at rates that can track rising sea levels. In the absence of pervasive stressors, recovery of degraded coral communities has been observed, resulting in high net‐positive budgets being regained. However, the frequency and intensity of climate‐driven bleaching events are predicted to increase over the next decades. This would increase the spatial footprint of disturbances and exacerbate the magnitude of the changes described here, limiting the capacity of many reefs to maintain their geo‐ecological functions. The enforcement of effective marine protection or the benefits of geographic isolation or of favourable environmental conditions (“refugia” sites) may offer the hope of more optimistic futures in some locations. A >plain language summary is available for this article.

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The once-dominant shallow reef-building coral Acropora palmata has suffered drastic geographical declines in the wider Caribbean from a disease epidemic that began in the late 1970s. At present there is a lack of quantitative data to determine whether this species is recovering over large spatial scales. Here, we use quantitative surveys conducted in 107 shallow-water reef sites between 2010 and 2012 to investigate the current distribution and abundance of A. palmata along the Mesoamerican Reef System (MRS). Using historical data we also explored how the distribution and abundance of this species has changed in the northern portion of the MRS between 1985 and 2010–2012. A. palmata was recorded in only a fifth of the surveyed reef sites in 2010–2012. In the majority of these reef sites the presence of A. palmata was patchy and rare. Only one site (Limones reef), in the northernmost portion of the MRS, presented considerably high A. palmata cover (mean: 34.7%, SD: 24.5%). At this site, the size-frequency distribution of A. palmata colonies was skewed towards small colony sizes; 84% of the colonies were healthy, however disease prevalence increased with colony size. A comparison with historical data showed that in the northern portion of the MRS, in 1985, A. palmata occurred in 74% of the 31 surveyed sites and had a mean cover of 7.7% (SD = 9.0), whereas in 2010–2012 this species was recorded in 48% of the sites with a mean cover of 2.9% (SD = 7.5). A. palmata populations along the MRS are failing to recover the distribution and abundance they had prior to the 1980s. Investigating the biological (e.g., population genetics) and environmental conditions (e.g., sources of stress) of the few standing reefs with relatively high A. palmata cover is crucial for the development of informed restoration models for this species.