Background:The epidemiology of COVID-19 remains speculative in Africa. To the best of our knowledge, no study, using robust methodology provides its trajectory for the region or accounts for local context. This paper is the first systematic attempt to provide prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates across Africa.Methods: Caseloads and incidence forecasts are from a co-variate-based instrumental variable regression model. Fatality rates from Italy and China were applied to generate mortality estimates after making relevant health system and population-level characteristics related adjustments between each of the African countries.Results: By June 30 2020, around 16.3 million people in Africa will contract 403 to 98,358,799). Northern and Eastern Africa will be the most and least areas affected. Cumulative cases on June 30 are expected to reach around 2.9 million (95% CI 465,028 to 18,286,358) in Southern Africa, 2.8 million (95% CI 517,489 to 15,056,314) in Western Africa, and 1.2 million (95% CI 229,111 to 6,138,692) in Central Africa. Incidence for the month of April 2020 is expected to be highest in Djibouti, 32.8 per 1000 (95% CI 6.25 to 171.77), while Morocco will experience among the highest fatalities (1,045 deaths, 95% CI 167 to 6,547). Conclusion:Less urbanized countries with low levels of socio-economic development (hence least connected to the world), are likely to register lower and slower transmissions at the early stages of an epidemic. However, the same enabling factors that worked for their benefit can hinder interventions that have lessened the impact of COVID-19 elsewhere.
BackgroundHealthcare financing through health insurance is gaining traction as developing countries strive to achieve universal health coverage and address the limited access to critical health services for specific populations including pregnant women and their children. However, these reforms are taking place despite limited evaluation of impact of health insurance on maternal health in developing countries including Kenya. In this study we evaluate the association of health insurance with access and utilization of obstetric delivery health services for pregnant women in Kenya.MethodsNationally representative data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2008–09 was used in this study. 4082 pregnant women with outcomes of interest - Institutional delivery (Yes/No – delivery at hospital, dispensary, maternity home, and clinic) and access to skilled birth attendants (help by a nurse, doctor, or trained midwife at delivery) were selected from 8444 women ages 15–49 years. Linear and logistic regression, and propensity score adjustment are used to estimate the causal association of enrollment in insurance on obstetric health outcomes.ResultsMothers with insurance are 23 percentage points (p < 0.01) more likely to deliver at an institution and 20 percentages points (p < 0.01) more likely have access to skilled birth attendants compared to those not insured. In addition mothers of lower socio-economic status benefit more from enrollment in insurance compared to mothers of higher socio-economic status. For both institutional delivery and access to skilled birth attendants, the average difference of the association of insurance enrollment compared to not enrolling for those of low SES is 23 percentage points (p < 0.01), and 6 percentage points (p < 0.01) for those of higher SES.ConclusionsEnrolling in health insurance is associated with increased access and utilization of obstetric delivery health services for pregnant women. Notably, those of lower socio-economic status seem to benefit the most from enrollment in insurance.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12913-017-2397-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Background: Reducing maternal morbidity and mortality remains a top global health agenda especially in high HIV/AIDS endemic locations where there is increased likelihood of mother to child transmission (MTCT) of HIV. Social health insurance (SHI) has emerged as a viable option to improve population access to health services, while improving outcomes for disenfranchised populations, particularly HIV+ women. However, the effect of SHI on healthcare access for HIV+ persons in limited resource settings is yet to undergo rigorous empirical evaluation. This study analyzes the effect of health insurance on obstetric healthcare access including institutional delivery and skilled birth attendants for HIV+ pregnant women in Kenya. Methods: We analyzed cross-sectional data from HIV+ pregnant women (ages 15-49 years) who had a delivery (full term, preterm, miscarriage) between 2008 and 2013 with their insurance enrollment status available in the electronic medical records database of a HIV healthcare system in Kenya. We estimated linear and logistic regression models and implemented matching and inverse probability weighting (IPW) to improve balance on observable individual characteristics. Additionally, we estimated heterogeneous effects stratified by HIV disease severity (CD4 < 350 as "Severe HIV disease", and CD4 > 350 otherwise). Findings: Health Insurance enrollment is associated with improved obstetric health services utilization among HIV+ pregnant women in Kenya. Specifically, HIV+ pregnant women covered by NHIF have greater access to institutional delivery (12.5-percentage points difference) and skilled birth attendants (19-percentage points difference) compared to uninsured. Notably, the effect of NHIF on obstetric health service use is much greater for those who are sicker (CD4 < 350)-20 percentage points difference. Conclusion: This study confirms conceptual and practical considerations around health insurance and healthcare access for HIV+ persons. Further, it helps to inform relevant policy development for health insurance and HIV financing and delivery in Kenya and in similar countries in sub-Saharan Africa in the universal health coverage (UHC) era.
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