Abstract. This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in the MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACC-II (summer 2014) and analyses the performance of the multimodel ensemble. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O 3 , NO 2 , SO 2 , CO, PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NO, NH 3 , total NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) and PAN+PAN Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. V. Marécal et al.:A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe precursors) over eight vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations.The performance of the system is assessed daily, weekly and every 3 months (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the ensemble median to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO 2 and PM 10 . The statistical indicators for ozone in summer 2014 show that the ensemble median gives on average the best performances compared to the seven models. There is very little degradation of the scores with the forecast day but there is a marked diurnal cycle, similarly to the individual models, that can be related partly to the prescribed diurnal variations of anthropogenic emissions in the models. During summer 2014, the diurnal ozone maximum is underestimated by the ensemble median by about 4 µg m −3 on average. Locally, during the studied ozone episodes, the maxima from the ensemble median are often lower than observations by 30-50 µg m −3 . Overall, ozone scores are generally good with average values for the normalised indicators of 0.14 for the modified normalised mean bias and of 0.30 for the fractional gross error. Tests have also shown that the ensemble median is robust to reduction of ensemble size by one, that is, if predictions are unavailable from one model. Scores are also discussed for PM 10 for winter 2013-1014. There is an underestimation of most models leading the ensemble median to a mean bias of −4.5 µg m −3 . The ensemble median fractional gross error is larger for PM 10 (∼ 0.52) than for ozone and the correlation is lower (∼ 0.35 for PM 10 and ∼ 0.54 for ...
1] For the first time, the long-term evaluation of an operational real-time air quality forecasting and analysis system is presented, using error statistics over 3 consecutive years. This system, called PREV'AIR, is the French air quality forecasting and monitoring system. It became operational in 2003 as a result of a cooperation between several public organizations. The system forecasts and analyzes air quality throughout Europe, with a zoom over France, for regulatory pollutants: ozone (O 3 ), particulate matter with diameter smaller than 10 mm (PM 10 ), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). The ability of PREV'AIR to forecast, up to 3 days ahead, photochemical and particle pollution over the domains considered is demonstrated: daily ozone maxima forecasts correlate with observations with 0.75-0.85 mean coefficients; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency acceptance criteria relative to the forecast accuracy for high concentrations and daily maxima are met for more than 90% of the measurement sites. For NO 2 and PM 10 , the performance corresponds to the state of the art. The contribution of weather forecast errors to air quality predictability is addressed: ozone daily maxima forecast errors are not dominated by meteorological forecast errors; for rural stations, only 6% (15% and 25%, respectively) of the error variance is due to meteorological forecast errors on the first 24 (48 and 72, respectively) hours. The Model Output Statistics procedure, implemented in PREV'AIR, is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR real-time analysis procedure, based on a kriging method, provides an accurate and comprehensive description of surface ozone fields over France. Citation: Honoré, C., et al. (2008), Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system,
Advanced chemistry-transport modeling and observing systems allow daily air quality observations, short-term forecasts, and real-time analyses of air quality at the global and European scales, with a focus over France.
An irreversible loss in lung function limits the long-term success in lung transplantation. We evaluated the role of chronic exposure to ambient air pollution on lung function levels in lung transplant recipients (LTRs).The lung function of 520 LTRs from the Cohort in Lung Transplantation (COLT) study was measured every 6 months. The levels of air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide (NO), particulate matter with an aerodynamic cut-off diameter of x µm (PM) and ozone (O)) at the patients' home address were averaged in the 12 months before each spirometry test. The effects of air pollutants on forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV) and forced vital capacity (FVC) in % predicted were estimated using mixed linear regressions. We assessed the effect modification of macrolide antibiotics in this relationship.Increased 12-month levels of pollutants were associated with lower levels of FVC % pred (-2.56%, 95% CI -3.86--1.25 for 5 µg·m of PM; -0.75%, 95% CI -1.38--0.12 for 2 µg·m of PM and -2.58%, 95% CI -4.63--0.53 for 10 µg·m of NO). In patients not taking macrolides, the deleterious association between PM and FVC tended to be stronger and PM was associated with lower FEVOur study suggests a deleterious effect of chronic exposure to air pollutants on lung function levels in LTRs, which might be modified with macrolides.
5 p.International audienceThe eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010 led to the injection in the troposphere of an important quantity of volcanic ash whose advection towards densely populated areas raised serious concerns regarding potential impacts on air quality. Here we investigate to what extent air quality in France was altered using exclusively quantitative data that was available in near real-time. We rely on a combination of atmospheric dispersion modelling, ground-based remote sensing, and chemical characterization of airborne particles. One week after the onset of the eruption we were able to conclude that the Eyjafjallajökull ash plume was locally responsible for an increase of up to 30 +/- 10 µgm-3 of total PM10 (particulate matter finer than 10 µm) that reached 65 mg m-3 on 18 and 19 April 2010. The methodology presented in this letter offers promising perspectives in terms of emergency response strategy when facing such unforeseen atmospheric dispersion events
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