Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly become a global pandemic. Because the severity of the disease is highly variable, predictive models to stratify patients according to their mortality risk are needed. Objective: Our aim was to develop a model able to predict the risk of fatal outcome in patients with COVID-19 that could be used easily at the time of patients' arrival at the hospital. Methods: We constructed a prospective cohort with 611 adult patients in whom COVID-19 was diagnosed between March 10 and April 12, 2020, in a tertiary hospital in Madrid, Spain. The analysis included 501 patients who had been discharged or had died by April 20, 2020. The capacity of several biomarkers, measured at the beginning of hospitalization, to predict mortality was assessed individually. Those biomarkers that independently contributed to improve mortality prediction were included in a multivariable risk model. Results: High IL-6 level, C-reactive protein level, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, ferritin level, D-dimer level, neutrophil count, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were all predictive of mortality (area under the curve >0.70), as were low albumin level, lymphocyte count, monocyte count, and ratio of peripheral blood oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO 2 /FiO 2). A multivariable mortality risk model including the SpO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, LDH level, IL-6 level, and age was developed and showed high accuracy for the prediction of fatal outcome (area under the curve 0.94). The optimal cutoff reliably classified patients (including patients with no initial respiratory distress) as survivors and nonsurvivors with 0.88 sensitivity and 0.89 specificity. Conclusion: This mortality risk model allows early risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 before the appearance of obvious signs of clinical deterioration, and it can be used as a tool to guide clinical decision making. (J Allergy Clin Immunol 2020;146:799-807.)

The immune response type organized against viral infection is determinant in the prognosis of some infections. This work has aimed to study Th polarization in acute COVID-19 and its possible association with the outcome through an observational prospective study. Fifty-eight COVID-19 patients were recruited in the Medicine Department of the hospital “12 de Octubre,” 55 patients remaining after losses to follow-up. Four groups were established according to maximum degree of disease progression. T-helper cell percentages and phenotypes, analyzed by flow cytometer, and serum cytokines levels, analyzed by Luminex, were evaluated when the microbiological diagnosis (acute phase) of the disease was obtained. Our study found a significant reduction of %Th1 and %Th17 cells with higher activated %Th2 cells in the COVID-19 patients compared with reference population. A higher percent of senescent Th2 cells was found in the patients who died than in those who survived. Senescent Th2 cell percentage was an independent risk factor for death (OR: 13.88) accompanied by the numbers of total lymphocytes (OR: 0.15) with an AUC of 0.879. COVID-19 patients showed a profile of pro-inflammatory serum cytokines compared to controls, with higher levels of IL-2, IL-6, IL-15, and IP-10. IL-10 and IL-13 were also elevated in patients compared to controls. Patients who did not survive presented significantly higher levels of IL-15 than those who recovered. No significant differences were observed according to disease progression groups. The study has shown that increased levels of IL-15 and a high Th2 response are associated with a fatal outcome of the disease.

Patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) frequently develop acute encephalopathy and encephalitis, but whether these complications are the result from viral-induced cytokine storm syndrome or anti-neural autoimmunity is still unclear. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic role of CSF and serum biomarkers of inflammation (a wide array of cytokines, antibodies against neural antigens, and IgG oligoclonal bands), and neuroaxonal damage (14-3-3 protein and neurofilament light [NfL]) in patients with acute COVID-19 and associated neurologic manifestations (neuro-COVID). We prospectively included 60 hospitalized neuro-COVID patients, 25 (42%) of them with encephalopathy and 14 (23%) with encephalitis, and followed them for 18 months. We found that, compared to healthy controls (HC), neuro-COVID patients presented elevated levels of IL-18, IL-6, and IL-8 in both serum and CSF. MCP1 was elevated only in CSF, while IL-10, IL-1RA, IP-10, MIG and NfL were increased only in serum. Patients with COVID-associated encephalitis or encephalopathy had distinct serum and CSF cytokine profiles compared with HC, but no differences were found when both clinical groups were compared to each other. Antibodies against neural antigens were negative in both groups. While the levels of neuroaxonal damage markers, 14-3-3 and NfL, and the proinflammatory cytokines IL-18, IL-1RA and IL-8 significantly associated with acute COVID-19 severity, only the levels of 14-3-3 and NfL in CSF significantly correlated with the degree of neurologic disability in the daily activities at 18 months follow-up. Thus, the inflammatory process promoted by SARS-CoV-2 infection might include blood-brain barrier disruption in patients with neurological involvement. In conclusion, the fact that the levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines do not predict the long-term functional outcome suggests that the prognosis is more related to neuronal damage than to the acute neuroinflammatory process.

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ObjectiveTo report the clinical, neuroimaging, and antibody associations in patients with autoimmune encephalitis (AE) and thymoma.MethodsA retrospective cohort study of 43 patients was conducted. Antibody determination and immunoprecipitation to characterize novel antigens were performed using reported techniques.ResultsPatients' median age was 52 years (range: 23–88 years). Forty (93%) had neuronal surface antibodies: gamma-aminobutyric acid receptor A (GABAAR) (15), amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid receptor (AMPAR) (13), contactin-associated protein-like 2 (CASPR2) (4), leucine-rich, glioma inactivated 1 (LGI1) (3), glycine receptor (GlyR) (3), and unknown antigens (2). Concurrent antibodies against intracellular antigens occurred in 13 (30%; 9 anti–collapsin response mediator protein 5 [CRMP5]) and were more frequent in anti-AMPAR encephalitis (54% vs 20%; p = 0.037). The most common clinical presentation was encephalitis with multiple T2/fluid-attenuated inversion recovery hyperintense lesions in 23 (53%) patients (15 GABAAR, 5 AMPAR, and 1 unknown neuropil antibody), followed by encephalitis with peripheral nerve hyperexcitability in 7 (16%; 4 CASPR2, 2 LGI1, and 1 unknown antibody), limbic encephalitis in 6 (14%; 4 AMPAR, 1 LGI1, and 1 antibody negative), progressive encephalomyelitis with rigidity and myoclonus in 4 (9%; 3 GlyR and 1 AMPAR antibodies), and encephalitis with normal MRI in 3 (7%; AMPAR antibodies). Anti-GABAAR encephalitis was more prevalent in Japanese patients compared with Caucasians and other ethnicities (61% vs 16%; p = 0.003). In anti-AMPAR encephalitis, 3/4 patients with poor and 0/6 with good outcome had concurrent CRMP5 antibodies (p = 0.033). Immunoprecipitation studies identified metabotropic glutamate receptor 3 antibodies that were additionally found in 5 patients (3 with and 2 without encephalitis).ConclusionsAE in patients with thymoma include several clinical-radiologic syndromes that vary according to the associated antibodies. Anti-GABAAR encephalitis was the most frequent AE and occurred more frequently in Japanese patients.